Modeling Ocean Wave Transfer to Ross Ice Shelf Flexure

An efficient mathematical model is presented for predicting the transfer of ocean waves to ice shelf flexure along two‐dimensional transects. The model incorporates varying ice shelf thickness and seabed bathymetry profiles, and is able to predict responses of large ice shelves over a broad frequency spectrum. The model is used to generate displacement and strain transfer functions for the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) using geometries from the Bedmap2 data set. The transfer functions are validated against recent observations and used to study the influence of geometrical variations on strain transfer close to the shelf front. Predictions of RIS strain in response to example irregular incident swell and infragravity waves are generated over a wide region, and show similar maximum strains but contrasting spatial strain patterns. The model and results provide a basis for studying destabilizing impacts of ocean waves on the RIS. Plain Language Summary The outer margins of Antarctic ice shelves bend and flex rhythmically in response to ocean waves, which imposes potentially damaging stresses and strains on the shelves. We model the flexural response of the world's largest ice shelf, the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), to ocean waves. We incorporate reflection of incident waves from the open ocean by the shelf front, and realistic ice shelf and seabed geometries. We validate the model using recent groundbreaking observations, and show that the RIS experiences large strains in response to a broad range of ocean waves, from swell generated by storms over the ocean to infragravity waves generated at distant coastlines. The predictions will underpin improved understanding of RIS stability, and, thus, contribute toward more accurate projections of global sea level rise. Key Points Model predictions of Ross Ice Shelf flexure in response to ocean waves, incorporating real shelf thickness and seabed profiles Model validated against observations, and swell and infragravity waves found to generate maximum flexural strains of similar magnitude Predictions will empower studies of ocean wave influence on crevasse expansion, rift propagation, and iceberg calving