Model Estimates of Intra- and Intersentennial Degradation of Permafrost on the Yamal Peninsula under Warming
Estimates of the intra- and intersentennial degradation of permafrost at different depths and conditions of methane hydrate stability on the Yamal Peninsula under warming were obtained on the basis of the heat transfer model in soil using simulations with global climate models. The results of the si...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Doklady earth sciences 2022-10, Vol.506 (2), p.782-789 |
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| creator | Mokhov, I. I. Malakhova, V. V. Arzhanov, M. M. |
| description | Estimates of the intra- and intersentennial degradation of permafrost at different depths and conditions of methane hydrate stability on the Yamal Peninsula under warming were obtained on the basis of the heat transfer model in soil using simulations with global climate models. The results of the simulations with the climate model of intermediate complexity for the last 130 ka were used along simulations with general circulation climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble (ScenarioMIP) from 1850 to the end of the 21st century under different SSP scenarios of anthropogenic forcings, in particular, the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The limiting conditions for the existence of permafrost at different depths and conditions for the methane hydrate stability were estimated for the global warming scenarios extended up to 2300 in accordance with the CMIP6 protocol as well as for the next 15 millennia with the use of the SSP5-8.5 scenario of anthropogenic forcing up to 2100. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1134/S1028334X22600426 |
| format | Article |
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The limiting conditions for the existence of permafrost at different depths and conditions for the methane hydrate stability were estimated for the global warming scenarios extended up to 2300 in accordance with the CMIP6 protocol as well as for the next 15 millennia with the use of the SSP5-8.5 scenario of anthropogenic forcing up to 2100.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1028-334X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1531-8354</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X22600426</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Moscow: Pleiades Publishing</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Anthropogenic factors ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Estimates ; General circulation ; Geophysics ; Global climate ; Global climate models ; Global warming ; Heat transfer ; Hydrates ; Intercomparison ; Methane ; Methane hydrate ; Methane hydrates ; Modelling ; Permafrost ; Simulation ; Simulation methods ; Soil degradation ; Stability</subject><ispartof>Doklady earth sciences, 2022-10, Vol.506 (2), p.782-789</ispartof><rights>Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2022. 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M.</creatorcontrib><title>Model Estimates of Intra- and Intersentennial Degradation of Permafrost on the Yamal Peninsula under Warming</title><title>Doklady earth sciences</title><addtitle>Dokl. Earth Sc</addtitle><description>Estimates of the intra- and intersentennial degradation of permafrost at different depths and conditions of methane hydrate stability on the Yamal Peninsula under warming were obtained on the basis of the heat transfer model in soil using simulations with global climate models. The results of the simulations with the climate model of intermediate complexity for the last 130 ka were used along simulations with general circulation climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble (ScenarioMIP) from 1850 to the end of the 21st century under different SSP scenarios of anthropogenic forcings, in particular, the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The limiting conditions for the existence of permafrost at different depths and conditions for the methane hydrate stability were estimated for the global warming scenarios extended up to 2300 in accordance with the CMIP6 protocol as well as for the next 15 millennia with the use of the SSP5-8.5 scenario of anthropogenic forcing up to 2100.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Estimates</subject><subject>General circulation</subject><subject>Geophysics</subject><subject>Global climate</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Heat transfer</subject><subject>Hydrates</subject><subject>Intercomparison</subject><subject>Methane</subject><subject>Methane hydrate</subject><subject>Methane hydrates</subject><subject>Modelling</subject><subject>Permafrost</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Simulation methods</subject><subject>Soil degradation</subject><subject>Stability</subject><issn>1028-334X</issn><issn>1531-8354</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1kUtLxDAQx4souK5-AG8Bz9W82x7F58KKCyrqqcy2k7XSppp0D357p1TwIBJIhpnffx6ZJDkW_FQIpc8eBJe5UvpFSsu5lnYnmQmjRJoro3fJpnA6xveTgxjfCdHaFLOkvetrbNlVHJoOBoysd2zhhwApA1-PJoaIdHvfQMsucROghqHp_UiuMHTgQh8HRo7hDdkrdISt0Dc-bltgW19jYM8QusZvDpM9B23Eo593njxdXz1e3KbL-5vFxfkyrWRuhtRaDXINkHNXybqASqPKCgncWSPN2slMVlAUkhdoweXaZMY6XTuRGanWIlPz5GTK-xH6zy3GoXzvt8FTyVJmylgtciuIOp2oDbRYNt71NHZFp8auqXqPriH_eSaJN5wbEohJUNHEMaArPwL9WvgqBS_HLZR_tkAaOWkisX6D4beV_0XfLMGJFA</recordid><startdate>20221001</startdate><enddate>20221001</enddate><creator>Mokhov, I. 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I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Malakhova, V. V.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arzhanov, M. M.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Doklady earth sciences</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mokhov, I. I.</au><au>Malakhova, V. V.</au><au>Arzhanov, M. 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| subjects | Analysis Anthropogenic factors Climate Climate change Climate models Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Estimates General circulation Geophysics Global climate Global climate models Global warming Heat transfer Hydrates Intercomparison Methane Methane hydrate Methane hydrates Modelling Permafrost Simulation Simulation methods Soil degradation Stability |
| title | Model Estimates of Intra- and Intersentennial Degradation of Permafrost on the Yamal Peninsula under Warming |
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