Model Estimates of Intra- and Intersentennial Degradation of Permafrost on the Yamal Peninsula under Warming

Estimates of the intra- and intersentennial degradation of permafrost at different depths and conditions of methane hydrate stability on the Yamal Peninsula under warming were obtained on the basis of the heat transfer model in soil using simulations with global climate models. The results of the simulations with the climate model of intermediate complexity for the last 130 ka were used along simulations with general circulation climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble (ScenarioMIP) from 1850 to the end of the 21st century under different SSP scenarios of anthropogenic forcings, in particular, the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The limiting conditions for the existence of permafrost at different depths and conditions for the methane hydrate stability were estimated for the global warming scenarios extended up to 2300 in accordance with the CMIP6 protocol as well as for the next 15 millennia with the use of the SSP5-8.5 scenario of anthropogenic forcing up to 2100.