A Two‐Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts

The popular probability integral transform (PIT) uniform plot presents informative empirical illustrations of five types of ensemble forecasts, that is, reliable, under‐confident, over‐confident, negatively biased and positively biased. This paper has built a novel two‐stage framework upon the PIT u...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Water resources research 2022-09, Vol.58 (9), p.n/a
Hauptverfasser:	Zhao, Tongtiegang, Xiong, Shaotang, Wang, Jiabiao, Liu, Zhiyong, Tian, Yu, Yan, Denghua, Zhang, Yongyong, Chen, Xiaohong, Wang, Hao
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bias Climate Climate prediction Climate system Decision making Distribution Ensemble forecasting ensemble forecasts Extreme values Frameworks Global precipitation Hypothesis testing Illustrations Integral transforms Mathematical models Mean Numerical experiments Precipitation Precipitation forecasting predictive performance probability integral transform Probability theory Reliability Robustness (mathematics) Scaling Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistical tests Statistics Variance Water resources Water resources planning Weather forecasting
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