Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations
“Unknowns” and “Black Swans” have become familiar terms in the public administration literature but tend to be used in different and often conflicting ways. This article provides a typology of the terms, develops a framework for thinking about how their elements relate, and distinguishes four variet...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Public administration review 2022-09, Vol.82 (5), p.958-963 |
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| container_title | Public administration review |
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| creator | Feduzi, Alberto Runde, Jochen Schwarz, Gary |
| description | “Unknowns” and “Black Swans” have become familiar terms in the public administration literature but tend to be used in different and often conflicting ways. This article provides a typology of the terms, develops a framework for thinking about how their elements relate, and distinguishes four varieties of the Black Swan. Using the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster, 9/11, the international withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the trade boycott associated with the Danish cartoon controversy as examples, we examine how these four varieties may arise in public sector organizations. We offer recommendations on how such organizations might reduce psychological and organizational barriers to uncovering unknowns before they can go on to become Black Swans. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/puar.13522 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Public administration review, 2022-09, Vol.82 (5), p.958-963 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Wiley Online Library Journals; PAIS Index; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Political Science Complete (EBSCOhost); EBSCOhost Education Source; Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Afghanistan War Boycotts International trade Organizations Public administration Public sector Rationality Space vehicles |
| title | Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations |
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