A Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI) Using Bayesian Splines

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) measures meteorological drought relative to historical climatology by normalizing accumulated precipitation. Longer record lengths improve parameter estimates, but these longer records may include signals of anthropogenic climate change and multidecadal nat...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of applied meteorology and climatology 2022-07, Vol.61 (7), p.761-779
Hauptverfasser:	Stagge, James H., Sung, Kyungmin
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	20th century Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Bayesian analysis Bayesian theory Climate change Climate models Climatology Drought Drought index Estimates Extreme weather Gauges Hydroclimate Long-term changes Mathematical models Maximum likelihood estimation Modelling Parameter estimation Parameter sensitivity Parameter uncertainty Parameters Precipitation Probability theory Rainy season Seasonal variations Splines Standardized precipitation index Summer weather Trends Uncertainty Wet season
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