Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance
The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) calibrated thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of a point during a given 1-, 4-, and 24-h time interval. This...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Weather and forecasting 2022-07, Vol.37 (7), p.1103-1115 |
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| creator | Harrison, David R. Elliott, Matthew S. Jirak, Israel L. Marsh, Patrick T. |
| description | The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) calibrated thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of a point during a given 1-, 4-, and 24-h time interval. This guidance takes advantage of a combination of storm attribute and environmental fields produced by the convection-allowing HREF to objectively improve upon lightning forecasts generated by the non-convection-allowing Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). This study provides an overview of how the HREF calibrated thunder guidance was developed and calibrated to be statistically reliable against observed CG lightning flashes recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Performance metrics for the 1-, 4-, and 24-h guidance are provided and compared to the respective SREF calibrated probabilistic lightning forecasts. The HREF calibrated thunder guidance has been implemented operationally within the National Weather Service and is now available to the public. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/WAF-D-22-0001.1 |
| format | Article |
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This guidance takes advantage of a combination of storm attribute and environmental fields produced by the convection-allowing HREF to objectively improve upon lightning forecasts generated by the non-convection-allowing Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). This study provides an overview of how the HREF calibrated thunder guidance was developed and calibrated to be statistically reliable against observed CG lightning flashes recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Performance metrics for the 1-, 4-, and 24-h guidance are provided and compared to the respective SREF calibrated probabilistic lightning forecasts. 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This guidance takes advantage of a combination of storm attribute and environmental fields produced by the convection-allowing HREF to objectively improve upon lightning forecasts generated by the non-convection-allowing Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). This study provides an overview of how the HREF calibrated thunder guidance was developed and calibrated to be statistically reliable against observed CG lightning flashes recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Performance metrics for the 1-, 4-, and 24-h guidance are provided and compared to the respective SREF calibrated probabilistic lightning forecasts. The HREF calibrated thunder guidance has been implemented operationally within the National Weather Service and is now available to the public.</description><subject>Calibration</subject><subject>Convection</subject><subject>Ensemble forecasting</subject><subject>High resolution</subject><subject>Lightning</subject><subject>Lightning detection</subject><subject>Lightning detection networks</subject><subject>Lightning flashes</subject><subject>Meteorological services</subject><subject>Performance measurement</subject><subject>Resolution</subject><subject>Storm forecasting</subject><subject>Thunder</subject><subject>Thunderstorms</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><issn>0882-8156</issn><issn>1520-0434</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNotkE1LAzEQhoMoWKtnrwHPaZPZzX4cSz-FgqItHkN2d7ZN2W5qkj3UX-8uyhxeGB7eGR5CngWfCJHK6ddsxRYMgHHOxUTckJGQwBmPo_iWjHiWAcuETO7Jg_enngEJ-Yhc9sE05se0BxqOSDfmcGQf6G3TBWNbumw9nosG6co6LLUP9PPqA55psPTd2aorkc51YwqnA1bDqtBFX-iDKenu2LUVOh-sO9N1ZyrdlvhI7mrdeHz6zzHZr5a7-YZt39av89mWlQBRYFVd9v9hXtRJBIAAwHUsuEygzCMRRwXyBGVR5zLXaR5nErOsEmkMaVQkuayjMXn56704-92hD-pkO9f2JxUkOSRymJ6a_lGls947rNXFmbN2VyW4GrSqXqtaKAA1aFUi-gXO22uQ</recordid><startdate>202207</startdate><enddate>202207</enddate><creator>Harrison, David R.</creator><creator>Elliott, Matthew S.</creator><creator>Jirak, Israel L.</creator><creator>Marsh, Patrick T.</creator><general>American Meteorological Society</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>U9A</scope></search><sort><creationdate>202207</creationdate><title>Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance</title><author>Harrison, David R. ; Elliott, Matthew S. ; Jirak, Israel L. ; Marsh, Patrick T.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c223t-dfc529e9bf6322e2220a410562c93143be06e5bf959a79485e88d174273b695f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Calibration</topic><topic>Convection</topic><topic>Ensemble forecasting</topic><topic>High resolution</topic><topic>Lightning</topic><topic>Lightning detection</topic><topic>Lightning detection networks</topic><topic>Lightning flashes</topic><topic>Meteorological services</topic><topic>Performance measurement</topic><topic>Resolution</topic><topic>Storm forecasting</topic><topic>Thunder</topic><topic>Thunderstorms</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Harrison, David R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Elliott, Matthew S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jirak, Israel L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marsh, Patrick T.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Weather and forecasting</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Harrison, David R.</au><au>Elliott, Matthew S.</au><au>Jirak, Israel L.</au><au>Marsh, Patrick T.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance</atitle><jtitle>Weather and forecasting</jtitle><date>2022-07</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>37</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>1103</spage><epage>1115</epage><pages>1103-1115</pages><issn>0882-8156</issn><eissn>1520-0434</eissn><abstract>The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) calibrated thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of a point during a given 1-, 4-, and 24-h time interval. 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| source | American Meteorological Society; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals |
| subjects | Calibration Convection Ensemble forecasting High resolution Lightning Lightning detection Lightning detection networks Lightning flashes Meteorological services Performance measurement Resolution Storm forecasting Thunder Thunderstorms Weather forecasting |
| title | Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance |
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