Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates
There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizin...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of official statistics 2022-06, Vol.38 (2), p.399-428 |
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| container_title | Journal of official statistics |
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| creator | Chen, Baoline McElroy, Tucker S. Pang, Osbert C. |
| description | There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.2478/jos-2022-0020 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Journal of official statistics, 2022-06, Vol.38 (2), p.399-428 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | De Gruyter Open Access Journals; Sage Journals GOLD Open Access 2024; Sociological Abstracts; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals |
| subjects | Diagnostic tests Economic analysis GDP Gross Domestic Product National accounts National income and product accounts NIPA residual seasonality Seasonal variations Seasonality diagnostics |
| title | Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates |
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