Compared to What?: Establishing Environmental Baselines for Tornado Warning Skill

In any discussion of forecast evaluation, it is tempting to fall back on statements reflecting unverified assumptions: “this tornado warning had lower skill because the underlying meteorology reflected a complicated or atypical scenario,” or “that forecast performed worse than we would have expected...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2021-04, Vol.102 (4), p.E738-E747
Hauptverfasser:	Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K., Brooks, Harold
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Convective systems Emergency warning programs False alarms Forecast evaluation Forecast verification Meteorology Probability theory Storms Tornadoes Trends Weather forecasting
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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