A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group. Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of change i...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of prediction markets 2014-06, Vol.8 (1), p.1-26
Hauptverfasser: Ben-David, Nissim, Ben David, Evyatar, Winer, Zvi
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Fertility
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container_title Journal of prediction markets
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creator Ben-David, Nissim
Ben David, Evyatar
Winer, Zvi
description We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group. Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of change is reduced in countries with low or medium survival rate of infants. Conversely, it increased for those with a high survival rate of infants. If the survival rate of infants converges to 1, the fertility rate of change converges to zero, moving the country to steady size of population at age 1.  
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title A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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