How life history determines time scale sensitivity and extinction risk of age‐structured populations
The long‐standing ecological interest in how environmental variability interacts with population dynamics to determine population variability and extinction risk has led to significant recent progress, but still lacks a direct connection to the role of a species' life history. Not only is envir...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Oikos 2022-05, Vol.2022 (5), p.n/a |
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description | The long‐standing ecological interest in how environmental variability interacts with population dynamics to determine population variability and extinction risk has led to significant recent progress, but still lacks a direct connection to the role of a species' life history. Not only is environmental variability expected to increase with climate change, but the spectrum of environmental variability may shift, and there is a question about which life histories will be sensitive to such changes. To address this question for age structured populations, we compared environmental responses of 16 Atlantic cod populations with different life histories (longevities 7–17 years). We analyzed the sensitivities of these populations to high and low frequencies of environmental variability using simulations and analytical metrics of stability and transient dynamics to show that: 1) population's total sensitivity to all frequencies of environmental variability is greater at lower population density, and 2) the fraction of the population's total sensitivity to environmental noise at high frequencies is greater for populations with narrower spawning age distributions. Moreover, we show that population extinction risk depends on the frequency content of population variability; probability of extinction is greater when populations are less sensitive to high frequencies in the environment. These analyses indicate how changes in species' age structure, because of climate change or other anthropomorphic effects, could affect extinction risk, biodiversity and ecosystem services of age‐structured populations, especially if there are spectral shifts in the fraction of sensitivity to higher frequencies. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1111/oik.08909 |
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Not only is environmental variability expected to increase with climate change, but the spectrum of environmental variability may shift, and there is a question about which life histories will be sensitive to such changes. To address this question for age structured populations, we compared environmental responses of 16 Atlantic cod populations with different life histories (longevities 7–17 years). We analyzed the sensitivities of these populations to high and low frequencies of environmental variability using simulations and analytical metrics of stability and transient dynamics to show that: 1) population's total sensitivity to all frequencies of environmental variability is greater at lower population density, and 2) the fraction of the population's total sensitivity to environmental noise at high frequencies is greater for populations with narrower spawning age distributions. Moreover, we show that population extinction risk depends on the frequency content of population variability; probability of extinction is greater when populations are less sensitive to high frequencies in the environment. These analyses indicate how changes in species' age structure, because of climate change or other anthropomorphic effects, could affect extinction risk, biodiversity and ecosystem services of age‐structured populations, especially if there are spectral shifts in the fraction of sensitivity to higher frequencies.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0030-1299</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1600-0706</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/oik.08909</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Age ; Age composition ; Background noise ; Biodiversity ; Climate change ; cohort resonance ; Dynamic stability ; Ecosystem services ; Endangered & extinct species ; environmental variability ; Extinction ; extinction risk ; Fish populations ; Gadus morhua ; High frequencies ; Life history ; Noise sensitivity ; Population ; Population density ; Population dynamics ; Probability theory ; Questions ; Risk ; Sensitivity analysis ; Spawning ; Species extinction ; Stability analysis ; Variability</subject><ispartof>Oikos, 2022-05, Vol.2022 (5), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2022 The Authors. 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Not only is environmental variability expected to increase with climate change, but the spectrum of environmental variability may shift, and there is a question about which life histories will be sensitive to such changes. To address this question for age structured populations, we compared environmental responses of 16 Atlantic cod populations with different life histories (longevities 7–17 years). We analyzed the sensitivities of these populations to high and low frequencies of environmental variability using simulations and analytical metrics of stability and transient dynamics to show that: 1) population's total sensitivity to all frequencies of environmental variability is greater at lower population density, and 2) the fraction of the population's total sensitivity to environmental noise at high frequencies is greater for populations with narrower spawning age distributions. Moreover, we show that population extinction risk depends on the frequency content of population variability; probability of extinction is greater when populations are less sensitive to high frequencies in the environment. These analyses indicate how changes in species' age structure, because of climate change or other anthropomorphic effects, could affect extinction risk, biodiversity and ecosystem services of age‐structured populations, especially if there are spectral shifts in the fraction of sensitivity to higher frequencies.</description><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age composition</subject><subject>Background noise</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>cohort resonance</subject><subject>Dynamic stability</subject><subject>Ecosystem services</subject><subject>Endangered & extinct species</subject><subject>environmental variability</subject><subject>Extinction</subject><subject>extinction risk</subject><subject>Fish populations</subject><subject>Gadus morhua</subject><subject>High frequencies</subject><subject>Life history</subject><subject>Noise sensitivity</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population density</subject><subject>Population dynamics</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Questions</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Spawning</subject><subject>Species extinction</subject><subject>Stability analysis</subject><subject>Variability</subject><issn>0030-1299</issn><issn>1600-0706</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><sourceid>WIN</sourceid><recordid>eNp10LFOwzAQBmALgUQpDLyBJSaGtOfEceIRVUArKnWB2XIcG9ymcbEdIBuPwDPyJKSUlRvulk__ST9ClwQmZJips5sJlBz4ERoRBpBAAewYjQAySEjK-Sk6C2ENAEVR0BEyc_eOG2s0frEhOt_jWkftt7bVAUe71Tgo2Qxbt8FG-2Zjj2VbY_0RbauidS32NmywM1g-6-_PrxB9p2LndY13btc1cm_COToxsgn64u-O0dPd7eNsnixX94vZzTJRKS9owmuuGC1zwrWqSMoKkJyXStGaElkpUnKTS6Npzau8AkUhz-qypIblXGowPBujq0PuzrvXToco1q7z7fBSpCwvCbAM9ur6oJR3IXhtxM7brfS9ICD2NYqhRvFb42CnB_tuG93_D8Vq8UCyjNHsBycjdxo</recordid><startdate>202205</startdate><enddate>202205</enddate><creator>Provost, Mikaela M.</creator><creator>Botsford, Louis W.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>WIN</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8301-515X</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202205</creationdate><title>How life history determines time scale sensitivity and extinction risk of age‐structured populations</title><author>Provost, Mikaela M. ; Botsford, Louis W.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c2974-9d9c648519ecb12670a998cc4d41abc189f5afe4d9b5b0c4053d884f659ae0f93</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age composition</topic><topic>Background noise</topic><topic>Biodiversity</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>cohort resonance</topic><topic>Dynamic stability</topic><topic>Ecosystem services</topic><topic>Endangered & extinct species</topic><topic>environmental variability</topic><topic>Extinction</topic><topic>extinction risk</topic><topic>Fish populations</topic><topic>Gadus morhua</topic><topic>High frequencies</topic><topic>Life history</topic><topic>Noise sensitivity</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Population density</topic><topic>Population dynamics</topic><topic>Probability theory</topic><topic>Questions</topic><topic>Risk</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Spawning</topic><topic>Species extinction</topic><topic>Stability analysis</topic><topic>Variability</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Provost, Mikaela M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Botsford, Louis W.</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>Wiley Online Library Free Content</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Animal Behavior Abstracts</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Oikos</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Provost, Mikaela M.</au><au>Botsford, Louis W.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>How life history determines time scale sensitivity and extinction risk of age‐structured populations</atitle><jtitle>Oikos</jtitle><date>2022-05</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>2022</volume><issue>5</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>0030-1299</issn><eissn>1600-0706</eissn><abstract>The long‐standing ecological interest in how environmental variability interacts with population dynamics to determine population variability and extinction risk has led to significant recent progress, but still lacks a direct connection to the role of a species' life history. 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Moreover, we show that population extinction risk depends on the frequency content of population variability; probability of extinction is greater when populations are less sensitive to high frequencies in the environment. These analyses indicate how changes in species' age structure, because of climate change or other anthropomorphic effects, could affect extinction risk, biodiversity and ecosystem services of age‐structured populations, especially if there are spectral shifts in the fraction of sensitivity to higher frequencies.</abstract><cop>Oxford, UK</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1111/oik.08909</doi><tpages>14</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8301-515X</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Age Age composition Background noise Biodiversity Climate change cohort resonance Dynamic stability Ecosystem services Endangered & extinct species environmental variability Extinction extinction risk Fish populations Gadus morhua High frequencies Life history Noise sensitivity Population Population density Population dynamics Probability theory Questions Risk Sensitivity analysis Spawning Species extinction Stability analysis Variability |
title | How life history determines time scale sensitivity and extinction risk of age‐structured populations |
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