Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios
We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particul...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2020-09, Vol.162 (2), p.425-442 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 442 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 2 |
| container_start_page | 425 |
| container_title | Climatic change |
| container_volume | 162 |
| creator | Yang, Jung-A Kim, Sooyoul Son, Sangyoung Mori, Nobuhito Mase, Hajime |
| description | We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2647051401</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2477634192</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-d44547e62cd6d74dde4503544f72412405d91432b6e7fa8ed734aaaf55a81bd93</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kc9q3DAQxkVpIdukL5CToJdc3EryyPIeQ-g_COSQ5CwUa-zVspa2GhmaR8nbRttNCPTQg9CAft_om_kYO5fiixTCfCUpdA-NUKIe06vGvGMrqU3bSOjFe7YSstONEGJ9wj4SbQ-VUd2KPV0SIdGMsfA08iUOmIsLsQQkHiLf57TFoYQ48XEpS0Y-bFyc6mNJHP-UjDNyKinPnJY8Id9gmDaFe9xj9AdZiq_K29s77qLnU0aMm7QQ8skRH1L9NJbsSqgs1drlkOiMfRjdjvDTy33K7r9_u7v62Vzf_Ph1dXndDNCp0ngADQY7NfjOG_AeQYtWA4xGgVQgtF9LaNVDh2Z0PXrTgnNu1Nr18sGv21N2cexbR_29IBU7h2pit3MRq0erwJiuBblWFf38D7pNS47VnVUdGKElCFkpdaSGnIgyjnafw-zyo5XCHtKyx7RsTcv-TcuaKmqPIqpw3W9-a_0f1TNsxZri</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2647051401</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios</title><source>SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings</source><creator>Yang, Jung-A ; Kim, Sooyoul ; Son, Sangyoung ; Mori, Nobuhito ; Mase, Hajime</creator><creatorcontrib>Yang, Jung-A ; Kim, Sooyoul ; Son, Sangyoung ; Mori, Nobuhito ; Mase, Hajime</creatorcontrib><description>We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Atmospheric Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Climatic conditions ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Extreme values ; Extreme weather ; Future climates ; Global climate ; Global climate models ; Global warming ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Height ; Hurricanes ; Korean Peninsula ; Locations (working) ; Lysis ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Storm surges ; Storms ; Surface temperature ; surface water temperature ; Tidal waves ; Typhoons ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2020-09, Vol.162 (2), p.425-442</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020. corrected publication 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. corrected publication 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-d44547e62cd6d74dde4503544f72412405d91432b6e7fa8ed734aaaf55a81bd93</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-d44547e62cd6d74dde4503544f72412405d91432b6e7fa8ed734aaaf55a81bd93</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-4430-3244</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,27905,27906,41469,42538,51300</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Yang, Jung-A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Sooyoul</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Son, Sangyoung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mori, Nobuhito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mase, Hajime</creatorcontrib><title>Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.</description><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climatic conditions</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Extreme values</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Future climates</subject><subject>Global climate</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Height</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Korean Peninsula</subject><subject>Locations (working)</subject><subject>Lysis</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Storm surges</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>surface water temperature</subject><subject>Tidal waves</subject><subject>Typhoons</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0165-0009</issn><issn>1573-1480</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kc9q3DAQxkVpIdukL5CToJdc3EryyPIeQ-g_COSQ5CwUa-zVspa2GhmaR8nbRttNCPTQg9CAft_om_kYO5fiixTCfCUpdA-NUKIe06vGvGMrqU3bSOjFe7YSstONEGJ9wj4SbQ-VUd2KPV0SIdGMsfA08iUOmIsLsQQkHiLf57TFoYQ48XEpS0Y-bFyc6mNJHP-UjDNyKinPnJY8Id9gmDaFe9xj9AdZiq_K29s77qLnU0aMm7QQ8skRH1L9NJbsSqgs1drlkOiMfRjdjvDTy33K7r9_u7v62Vzf_Ph1dXndDNCp0ngADQY7NfjOG_AeQYtWA4xGgVQgtF9LaNVDh2Z0PXrTgnNu1Nr18sGv21N2cexbR_29IBU7h2pit3MRq0erwJiuBblWFf38D7pNS47VnVUdGKElCFkpdaSGnIgyjnafw-zyo5XCHtKyx7RsTcv-TcuaKmqPIqpw3W9-a_0f1TNsxZri</recordid><startdate>20200901</startdate><enddate>20200901</enddate><creator>Yang, Jung-A</creator><creator>Kim, Sooyoul</creator><creator>Son, Sangyoung</creator><creator>Mori, Nobuhito</creator><creator>Mase, Hajime</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7S9</scope><scope>L.6</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4430-3244</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200901</creationdate><title>Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios</title><author>Yang, Jung-A ; Kim, Sooyoul ; Son, Sangyoung ; Mori, Nobuhito ; Mase, Hajime</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-d44547e62cd6d74dde4503544f72412405d91432b6e7fa8ed734aaaf55a81bd93</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Atmospheric Sciences</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climatic conditions</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Extreme values</topic><topic>Extreme weather</topic><topic>Future climates</topic><topic>Global climate</topic><topic>Global climate models</topic><topic>Global warming</topic><topic>Greenhouse effect</topic><topic>Greenhouse gases</topic><topic>Height</topic><topic>Hurricanes</topic><topic>Korean Peninsula</topic><topic>Locations (working)</topic><topic>Lysis</topic><topic>Sea surface</topic><topic>Sea surface temperature</topic><topic>Storm surges</topic><topic>Storms</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>surface water temperature</topic><topic>Tidal waves</topic><topic>Typhoons</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Yang, Jung-A</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kim, Sooyoul</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Son, Sangyoung</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mori, Nobuhito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mase, Hajime</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>One Business (ProQuest)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>University of Michigan</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>AGRICOLA</collection><collection>AGRICOLA - Academic</collection><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Yang, Jung-A</au><au>Kim, Sooyoul</au><au>Son, Sangyoung</au><au>Mori, Nobuhito</au><au>Mase, Hajime</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios</atitle><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle><stitle>Climatic Change</stitle><date>2020-09-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>162</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>425</spage><epage>442</epage><pages>425-442</pages><issn>0165-0009</issn><eissn>1573-1480</eissn><abstract>We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7</doi><tpages>18</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4430-3244</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0165-0009 |
| ispartof | Climatic change, 2020-09, Vol.162 (2), p.425-442 |
| issn | 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2647051401 |
| source | SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Atmospheric Sciences Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Climatic conditions Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Extreme values Extreme weather Future climates Global climate Global climate models Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Height Hurricanes Korean Peninsula Locations (working) Lysis Sea surface Sea surface temperature Storm surges Storms Surface temperature surface water temperature Tidal waves Typhoons Uncertainty |
| title | Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-17T12%3A23%3A35IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Assessment%20of%20uncertainties%20in%20projecting%20future%20changes%20to%20extreme%20storm%20surge%20height%20depending%20on%20future%20SST%20and%20greenhouse%20gas%20concentration%20scenarios&rft.jtitle=Climatic%20change&rft.au=Yang,%20Jung-A&rft.date=2020-09-01&rft.volume=162&rft.issue=2&rft.spage=425&rft.epage=442&rft.pages=425-442&rft.issn=0165-0009&rft.eissn=1573-1480&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2477634192%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2647051401&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |