Effectiveness of Human Mobility Change in Reducing the Spread of COVID-19: Ecological Study of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Non-pharmacological interventions including mobility restriction have been developed to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We provided precise estimates of disease burden and examined the impact of mobility restriction on reducing the COVID-19 effective reproduction number in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This study involved secondary analysis of open-access COVID-19 data obtained from different sources between 2 March and 26 December 2020. The dependent and main independent variables of interest were the effective reproduction number and anonymized mobility indices, respectively. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between the community mobility change and the effective reproduction number for COVID-19. By 26 December 2020, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia reached 360,690, with a cumulative incidence rate of 105.41/10,000 population. Al Jouf, Northern Border, and Jazan regions were ≥2.5 times (OR = 2.93; 95% CI: 1.29–6.64), (OR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.08–5.81), and (OR = 2.51; 95% CI: 1.09–5.79) more likely to have a higher case fatality rate than Riyadh, the capital. Mobility changes in public and residential areas were significant predictors of the COVID-19 effective reproduction number. This study demonstrated that community mobility restrictions effectively control transmission of the COVID-19 virus.