What drives the green and low-carbon energy transition in China?: An empirical analysis based on a novel framework

China is committed to seeing its peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and then its carbon neutrality before 2060, which further highlights the importance of China's energy transition. On the basis of clarifying the logic of analysis, this paper clearly defines the objectives of both the low-carbon pathway and the green pathway, scientifically identifies the incentives when choosing the green & low-carbon pathway in China's energy transition, tentatively constructs an “Incentive-Driven Analysis Model for Green & Low-carbon Transition”, and quantitatively studies the driving effects of five-dimensional incentives. The econometric methodology is applied for empirical analysis using data from 2000 to 2019 for some reason, and the variable values are measured. The results show that: (1) In terms of structure, the institutional incentives are stronger than others, while the “Dual Circulation” incentives are becoming more and more important; (2) In terms of mode, judged by the vector characteristics, obvious differences in “process continuity” and “functional consistency” can be seen among different incentives; (3) In terms of effect, even the same driving force will have different functional attributes in different stages, especially in the “gear shift period” and the “gear shift acceleration period”. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: Theoretically, the “low carbon transition” and the “green transition” are clearly distinguished, while a framework with five dimensions for energy transition analysis is introduced for the first time. Practically, the effectiveness of different incentives for given periods is clearly explained from the perspectives of direction, intensity and timeliness, which provides reference for government decision-making. •A novel analysis framework with five-dimensional incentives is built.•Driving forces are analyzed by econometric methodology.•Incentive-Driven Analysis Model for Green & Low-carbon Transition is constructed.•Empirical analysis for China's energy transition is studies within two different periods.