Multivariate analysis for medium- and long-range forecasting of Nile River flow to mitigate drought and flood risks
The Nile River provides Egypt with most of its water resources. Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow better management and operation of the water resource facilities and mitigate the risks of both droughts and floods. In th...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2022, Vol.110 (1), p.741-763 |
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| creator | Ahmed, Hossam M. Awadallah, Ayman G. El-Zawahry, Alaa El-Din M. Hamed, Khaled H. |
| description | The Nile River provides Egypt with most of its water resources. Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow better management and operation of the water resource facilities and mitigate the risks of both droughts and floods. In this study, a wide range of climate indices and atmospheric fields were used as potential predictors for long-range forecasting of Nile streamflow for one flood season ahead (July–October). The approach followed in this study focuses on searching for potential predictors, reducing the pool of potential predictors by using multivariate statistical analysis, applying sequentially, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and multiple linear regression to robustly forecast the Nile flow. The proposed approach proved to be very useful for improving long-range Nile River flow forecasting. It revealed the adequacy of the models and enhanced the accuracy of the predictions of the full spectrum of droughts and floods, both in the calibration and validation phases, over the simple stepwise regression method using all climate indices and atmospheric fields as potential predictors. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s11069-021-04968-3 |
| format | Article |
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Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow better management and operation of the water resource facilities and mitigate the risks of both droughts and floods. In this study, a wide range of climate indices and atmospheric fields were used as potential predictors for long-range forecasting of Nile streamflow for one flood season ahead (July–October). The approach followed in this study focuses on searching for potential predictors, reducing the pool of potential predictors by using multivariate statistical analysis, applying sequentially, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and multiple linear regression to robustly forecast the Nile flow. The proposed approach proved to be very useful for improving long-range Nile River flow forecasting. 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Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow better management and operation of the water resource facilities and mitigate the risks of both droughts and floods. In this study, a wide range of climate indices and atmospheric fields were used as potential predictors for long-range forecasting of Nile streamflow for one flood season ahead (July–October). The approach followed in this study focuses on searching for potential predictors, reducing the pool of potential predictors by using multivariate statistical analysis, applying sequentially, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and multiple linear regression to robustly forecast the Nile flow. The proposed approach proved to be very useful for improving long-range Nile River flow forecasting. It revealed the adequacy of the models and enhanced the accuracy of the predictions of the full spectrum of droughts and floods, both in the calibration and validation phases, over the simple stepwise regression method using all climate indices and atmospheric fields as potential predictors.</description><subject>Adequacy</subject><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Civil Engineering</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climatic indexes</subject><subject>Correlation analysis</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Drought and floods</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental Management</subject><subject>Environmental risk</subject><subject>Fields</subject><subject>Flood forecasting</subject><subject>Flood predictions</subject><subject>Flood risk</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Hydrogeology</subject><subject>Long-range forecasting</subject><subject>Multivariate analysis</subject><subject>Multivariate statistical analysis</subject><subject>Natural Hazards</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Principal components analysis</subject><subject>Risk reduction</subject><subject>River flow</subject><subject>River forecasting</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Stream discharge</subject><subject>Stream flow</subject><subject>Water 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Medium- and long-rage forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized as of significant importance to allow better management and operation of the water resource facilities and mitigate the risks of both droughts and floods. In this study, a wide range of climate indices and atmospheric fields were used as potential predictors for long-range forecasting of Nile streamflow for one flood season ahead (July–October). The approach followed in this study focuses on searching for potential predictors, reducing the pool of potential predictors by using multivariate statistical analysis, applying sequentially, Canonical Correlation Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and multiple linear regression to robustly forecast the Nile flow. The proposed approach proved to be very useful for improving long-range Nile River flow forecasting. 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| subjects | Adequacy Atmospheric models Civil Engineering Climate Climatic indexes Correlation analysis Drought Drought and floods Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental Management Environmental risk Fields Flood forecasting Flood predictions Flood risk Floods Forecasting Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrogeology Long-range forecasting Multivariate analysis Multivariate statistical analysis Natural Hazards Original Paper Principal components analysis Risk reduction River flow River forecasting Rivers Statistical analysis Statistical methods Stream discharge Stream flow Water resources |
| title | Multivariate analysis for medium- and long-range forecasting of Nile River flow to mitigate drought and flood risks |
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