Sediment Accumulation, Elevation Change, and the Vulnerability of Tidal Marshes in the Delaware Estuary and Barnegat Bay to Accelerated Sea Level Rise

Tidal marshes are highly valued habitats, yet are vulnerable to loss from both anthropogenic and natural disturbances including sea-level rise (SLR). Many tidal marshes have kept pace with SLR over the last century; on average, however, recent escalations in SLR increase the vulnerability of marshes to submergence. Relative sea-level rise near our study sites in the Mid-Atlantic U.S. averaged 4.34 mm year −1 over the last 50 years, yet over the last 19 years, relative sea-level rise averaged 6.25 mm year −1 and the rise in high tide water levels averaged 8.13 mm year −1 . We compared these rates of water rise to rates of marsh surface elevation change using surface elevation tables in ten tidal marshes—three tidal freshwater and four saline marshes in the Delaware Estuary and three salt marshes in Barnegat Bay, NJ, USA. We also examined the effects of marsh type and geomorphic setting on rates of elevation change, surface accretion, and subsurface change as well as the influence of marsh elevation, distance from a channel, and tidal range ( n = 3 sites per marsh). Surface elevation change measured over the last 4 to 9 years averaged less than 6 mm year −1 in nine out of ten of the study stations, less than rates of relative SLR. Tidal freshwater marshes in the Delaware Estuary had greater rates of surface accretion and elevation change than salt marshes in Barnegat Bay. Marshes sitting lower in the tidal frame and experiencing higher tidal ranges tended to have higher surface accretion rates, but shallow subsidence had a stronger influence on these elevation change rates. We estimated time to submergence (i.e., lifespan) for using rates of marsh elevation change, a SLR rate of 10 mm year −1 , and thresholds for conversion to open water using geospatial datasets. The calculated time to submergence for the majority of marshes was 60 to 80 years with some predicted to submerge in as few as 5 years. These data suggest that in order to keep pace with accelerating SLR, surface accretion in many of these marshes will have to increase at a rate that surpasses shallow subsidence (1–7 mm year −1 ).