Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture
There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire we...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology 2022-02, Vol.28 (4), p.1544-1559 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 1559 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 1544 |
| container_title | Global change biology |
| container_volume | 28 |
| creator | Ellis, Todd M. Bowman, David M. J. S. Jain, Piyush Flannigan, Mike D. Williamson, Grant J. |
| description | There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The last 40 years have seen a strong drying trend across wildfire fuels worldwide. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. These detected trends lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/gcb.16006 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2619784582</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2619784582</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3536-22fe5e13a22de251d3335e12aefcadd78e086c8e45d01bc75a5f28e27b21a2553</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kL1OwzAURi0EoqUw8ALIEhNDWv_EjjtCBQWpEhKC2XLsG5SSJsVOQN14BJ6RJ8ElhQ0v_mwdf1c-CJ1SMqZxTZ5tPqaSELmHhpRLkbBUyf1tFmlCCeUDdBTCkhDCGZGHaMBTFTOdDtHDvGpyU-Gyth5MgBjwe1m5ovSAfRlesOsAtw22VbkyLXx9fDpfvkGNHcSrGsL2RdFBhVdNGdrOwzE6KEwV4GS3j9DTzfXj7DZZ3M_vZpeLxHLBZcJYAQIoN4w5YII6znk8MwOFNc5lCoiSVkEqHKG5zYQRBVPAspxRw4TgI3Te965989pBaPWy6XwdR2om6TRTqVAsUhc9ZX0TgodCr338id9oSvTWno729I-9yJ7tGrt8Be6P_NUVgUkPREWw-b9Jz2dXfeU3v-J5SA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2619784582</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete</source><creator>Ellis, Todd M. ; Bowman, David M. J. S. ; Jain, Piyush ; Flannigan, Mike D. ; Williamson, Grant J.</creator><creatorcontrib>Ellis, Todd M. ; Bowman, David M. J. S. ; Jain, Piyush ; Flannigan, Mike D. ; Williamson, Grant J.</creatorcontrib><description>There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The last 40 years have seen a strong drying trend across wildfire fuels worldwide. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. These detected trends lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1354-1013</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1365-2486</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16006</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34800319</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Anthropogenic factors ; Canada ; Climate Change ; climate reanalysis ; Drying ; Ecosystem ; Environmental risk ; fire risk ; Fires ; fuel ; fuel moisture ; Fuel production ; Fuels ; Moisture content ; net primary productivity ; Productivity ; pyrogeography ; Seasonal variations ; Seasonality ; Trends ; Vegetation ; Water content ; Weather ; Wetting ; wildfire ; Wildfires</subject><ispartof>Global change biology, 2022-02, Vol.28 (4), p.1544-1559</ispartof><rights>2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><rights>2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3536-22fe5e13a22de251d3335e12aefcadd78e086c8e45d01bc75a5f28e27b21a2553</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3536-22fe5e13a22de251d3335e12aefcadd78e086c8e45d01bc75a5f28e27b21a2553</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-0471-4663 ; 0000-0002-9970-5363 ; 0000-0001-8075-124X ; 0000-0002-4410-8676 ; 0000-0002-3469-7550</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fgcb.16006$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fgcb.16006$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34800319$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Ellis, Todd M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bowman, David M. J. S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jain, Piyush</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flannigan, Mike D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Williamson, Grant J.</creatorcontrib><title>Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture</title><title>Global change biology</title><addtitle>Glob Chang Biol</addtitle><description>There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The last 40 years have seen a strong drying trend across wildfire fuels worldwide. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. These detected trends lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.</description><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Canada</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>climate reanalysis</subject><subject>Drying</subject><subject>Ecosystem</subject><subject>Environmental risk</subject><subject>fire risk</subject><subject>Fires</subject><subject>fuel</subject><subject>fuel moisture</subject><subject>Fuel production</subject><subject>Fuels</subject><subject>Moisture content</subject><subject>net primary productivity</subject><subject>Productivity</subject><subject>pyrogeography</subject><subject>Seasonal variations</subject><subject>Seasonality</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><subject>Water content</subject><subject>Weather</subject><subject>Wetting</subject><subject>wildfire</subject><subject>Wildfires</subject><issn>1354-1013</issn><issn>1365-2486</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2022</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kL1OwzAURi0EoqUw8ALIEhNDWv_EjjtCBQWpEhKC2XLsG5SSJsVOQN14BJ6RJ8ElhQ0v_mwdf1c-CJ1SMqZxTZ5tPqaSELmHhpRLkbBUyf1tFmlCCeUDdBTCkhDCGZGHaMBTFTOdDtHDvGpyU-Gyth5MgBjwe1m5ovSAfRlesOsAtw22VbkyLXx9fDpfvkGNHcSrGsL2RdFBhVdNGdrOwzE6KEwV4GS3j9DTzfXj7DZZ3M_vZpeLxHLBZcJYAQIoN4w5YII6znk8MwOFNc5lCoiSVkEqHKG5zYQRBVPAspxRw4TgI3Te965989pBaPWy6XwdR2om6TRTqVAsUhc9ZX0TgodCr338id9oSvTWno729I-9yJ7tGrt8Be6P_NUVgUkPREWw-b9Jz2dXfeU3v-J5SA</recordid><startdate>202202</startdate><enddate>202202</enddate><creator>Ellis, Todd M.</creator><creator>Bowman, David M. J. S.</creator><creator>Jain, Piyush</creator><creator>Flannigan, Mike D.</creator><creator>Williamson, Grant J.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0471-4663</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9970-5363</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8075-124X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4410-8676</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3469-7550</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202202</creationdate><title>Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture</title><author>Ellis, Todd M. ; Bowman, David M. J. S. ; Jain, Piyush ; Flannigan, Mike D. ; Williamson, Grant J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3536-22fe5e13a22de251d3335e12aefcadd78e086c8e45d01bc75a5f28e27b21a2553</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Anthropogenic factors</topic><topic>Canada</topic><topic>Climate Change</topic><topic>climate reanalysis</topic><topic>Drying</topic><topic>Ecosystem</topic><topic>Environmental risk</topic><topic>fire risk</topic><topic>Fires</topic><topic>fuel</topic><topic>fuel moisture</topic><topic>Fuel production</topic><topic>Fuels</topic><topic>Moisture content</topic><topic>net primary productivity</topic><topic>Productivity</topic><topic>pyrogeography</topic><topic>Seasonal variations</topic><topic>Seasonality</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><topic>Water content</topic><topic>Weather</topic><topic>Wetting</topic><topic>wildfire</topic><topic>Wildfires</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Ellis, Todd M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bowman, David M. J. S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jain, Piyush</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flannigan, Mike D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Williamson, Grant J.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Ellis, Todd M.</au><au>Bowman, David M. J. S.</au><au>Jain, Piyush</au><au>Flannigan, Mike D.</au><au>Williamson, Grant J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture</atitle><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle><addtitle>Glob Chang Biol</addtitle><date>2022-02</date><risdate>2022</risdate><volume>28</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>1544</spage><epage>1559</epage><pages>1544-1559</pages><issn>1354-1013</issn><eissn>1365-2486</eissn><abstract>There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The last 40 years have seen a strong drying trend across wildfire fuels worldwide. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. These detected trends lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><pmid>34800319</pmid><doi>10.1111/gcb.16006</doi><tpages>16</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0471-4663</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9970-5363</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8075-124X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4410-8676</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3469-7550</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 1354-1013 |
| ispartof | Global change biology, 2022-02, Vol.28 (4), p.1544-1559 |
| issn | 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2619784582 |
| source | MEDLINE; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | Anthropogenic factors Canada Climate Change climate reanalysis Drying Ecosystem Environmental risk fire risk Fires fuel fuel moisture Fuel production Fuels Moisture content net primary productivity Productivity pyrogeography Seasonal variations Seasonality Trends Vegetation Water content Weather Wetting wildfire Wildfires |
| title | Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-31T11%3A04%3A29IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Global%20increase%20in%20wildfire%20risk%20due%20to%20climate%E2%80%90driven%20declines%20in%20fuel%20moisture&rft.jtitle=Global%20change%20biology&rft.au=Ellis,%20Todd%20M.&rft.date=2022-02&rft.volume=28&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=1544&rft.epage=1559&rft.pages=1544-1559&rft.issn=1354-1013&rft.eissn=1365-2486&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/gcb.16006&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2619784582%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2619784582&rft_id=info:pmid/34800319&rfr_iscdi=true |