Forecasting number of corner kicks taken in association football using compound Poisson distribution
This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch with serial clustering pattern. Providing parameter estimates...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | arXiv.org 2023-11 |
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| creator | Yip, Stan Zou, Yinghong Ronald Tsz Hin Hung Ka Fai Cedric Yiu |
| description | This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch with serial clustering pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson regression including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution is introduced. With a varying shape parameter, the corner counts serial correlation between matches is handled naturally within the Bayesian model. In this study, information elicited from cross-market betting odds was used to improve the model predictability. Margin application methods to adjust market inefficiency in raw odds are also discussed. |
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Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch with serial clustering pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson regression including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution is introduced. With a varying shape parameter, the corner counts serial correlation between matches is handled naturally within the Bayesian model. In this study, information elicited from cross-market betting odds was used to improve the model predictability. Margin application methods to adjust market inefficiency in raw odds are also discussed.</abstract><cop>Ithaca</cop><pub>Cornell University Library, arXiv.org</pub><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Parameter estimation Poisson density functions Poisson distribution Regression models Statistical analysis |
| title | Forecasting number of corner kicks taken in association football using compound Poisson distribution |
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