Quality of the Wind Wave Forecast in the Black Sea Including Storm Wave Analysis
This paper presents the results of wind wave forecasts for the Black Sea. Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Sustainability 2021-12, Vol.13 (23), p.13099, Article 13099 |
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| creator | Myslenkov, Stanislav Zelenko, Alexander Resnyanskii, Yuriy Arkhipkin, Victor Silvestrova, Ksenia |
| description | This paper presents the results of wind wave forecasts for the Black Sea. Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on an unstructured grid. AltiKa satellite altimeter data were used to assess the quality of wind and wave forecasts for the period from 1 April to 31 December 2017. Wave height and wind speed forecast data were obtained with a lead time of up to 72 h. The presented models provide an adequate forecast in terms of modern wave modeling (a correlation coefficient of 0.8-0.9 and an RMSE of 0.25-0.3 m) when all statistics were analyzed. A clear improvement in the wave forecast quality with the high-resolution wind forecast COSMO-RU07 was not registered. The bias error did not exceed 0.5 m in an SWH range from 0 to 3 m. However, the bias sharply increased to -2 or -3 m for an SWH range of 3-4 m. Wave forecast quality assessments were conducted for several storm cases. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3390/su132313099 |
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Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on an unstructured grid. AltiKa satellite altimeter data were used to assess the quality of wind and wave forecasts for the period from 1 April to 31 December 2017. Wave height and wind speed forecast data were obtained with a lead time of up to 72 h. The presented models provide an adequate forecast in terms of modern wave modeling (a correlation coefficient of 0.8-0.9 and an RMSE of 0.25-0.3 m) when all statistics were analyzed. A clear improvement in the wave forecast quality with the high-resolution wind forecast COSMO-RU07 was not registered. The bias error did not exceed 0.5 m in an SWH range from 0 to 3 m. However, the bias sharply increased to -2 or -3 m for an SWH range of 3-4 m. Wave forecast quality assessments were conducted for several storm cases.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2071-1050</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2071-1050</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3390/su132313099</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>BASEL: Mdpi</publisher><subject><![CDATA[Atmospheric models ; Bias ; Correlation coefficient ; Correlation coefficients ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Environmental Studies ; Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Lead time ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Oceans ; Quality assessment ; Russian language ; Science & Technology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Statistical analysis ; Sustainable development ; Unstructured grids (mathematics) ; Wave analysis ; Wave height ; Wave power ; Weather ; Weather forecasting ; Wind ; Wind speed ; Wind waves]]></subject><ispartof>Sustainability, 2021-12, Vol.13 (23), p.13099, Article 13099</ispartof><rights>2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 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| subjects | Atmospheric models Bias Correlation coefficient Correlation coefficients Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Environmental Studies Green & Sustainable Science & Technology Lead time Life Sciences & Biomedicine Oceans Quality assessment Russian language Science & Technology Science & Technology - Other Topics Statistical analysis Sustainable development Unstructured grids (mathematics) Wave analysis Wave height Wave power Weather Weather forecasting Wind Wind speed Wind waves |
| title | Quality of the Wind Wave Forecast in the Black Sea Including Storm Wave Analysis |
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