Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Oued El Abid basin, Morocco
Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by reduced surface water resources. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Hydrological sciences journal 2021-11, Vol.66 (15), p.2132-2145 |
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| container_title | Hydrological sciences journal |
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| creator | El Khalki, El Mahdi Tramblay, Yves Hanich, Lahoucine Marchane, Ahmed Boudhar, Abdelghani Hakkani, Bouchaib |
| description | Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by reduced surface water resources. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic calibration method to provide confidence intervals on simulated discharge is used to reproduce discharge using observed and bias-corrected ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) rainfall (WFDE5). Five regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are considered to estimate the climate change impacts on surface runoff for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a future increase in evapotranspiration (+15 to +36%) associated with a decrease in precipitation (−16 to −34%) in both climate scenarios. The hydrological projections indicated a significant decrease in runoff (−57 to −86%), more severe when the model is driven by WFDE5 compared to observed precipitation. Consequently, the strong decline of surface water resources imply a change in water ressource management for hydropower production and local agriculture to adapt to the future climatic conditions. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1080/02626667.2021.1982137 |
| format | Article |
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This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic calibration method to provide confidence intervals on simulated discharge is used to reproduce discharge using observed and bias-corrected ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) rainfall (WFDE5). Five regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are considered to estimate the climate change impacts on surface runoff for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a future increase in evapotranspiration (+15 to +36%) associated with a decrease in precipitation (−16 to −34%) in both climate scenarios. The hydrological projections indicated a significant decrease in runoff (−57 to −86%), more severe when the model is driven by WFDE5 compared to observed precipitation. Consequently, the strong decline of surface water resources imply a change in water ressource management for hydropower production and local agriculture to adapt to the future climatic conditions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0262-6667</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2150-3435</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2021.1982137</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Abingdon: Taylor & Francis</publisher><subject>Agriculture ; Atmospheric precipitations ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatic conditions ; Confidence intervals ; Discharge ; Environmental impact ; EURO-CORDEX ; Evapotranspiration ; Hydroelectric power ; Hydrology ; Morocco ; Precipitation ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Runoff ; Surface runoff ; Surface water ; Surface water resources ; Water balance ; Water resources ; WFDE5</subject><ispartof>Hydrological sciences journal, 2021-11, Vol.66 (15), p.2132-2145</ispartof><rights>2021 IAHS 2021</rights><rights>2021 IAHS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c338t-ad9ecf58f13bbd3b2eee7bf437bdb2389aeacad4aba632c817937f5c7858e1e53</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c338t-ad9ecf58f13bbd3b2eee7bf437bdb2389aeacad4aba632c817937f5c7858e1e53</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-4033-9717 ; 0000-0003-0481-5330 ; 0000-0001-9337-4367</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626667.2021.1982137$$EPDF$$P50$$Ginformaworld$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2021.1982137$$EHTML$$P50$$Ginformaworld$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27923,27924,59646,60435</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>El Khalki, El Mahdi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tramblay, Yves</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hanich, Lahoucine</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marchane, Ahmed</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boudhar, Abdelghani</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hakkani, Bouchaib</creatorcontrib><title>Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Oued El Abid basin, Morocco</title><title>Hydrological sciences journal</title><description>Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by reduced surface water resources. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic calibration method to provide confidence intervals on simulated discharge is used to reproduce discharge using observed and bias-corrected ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) rainfall (WFDE5). Five regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are considered to estimate the climate change impacts on surface runoff for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a future increase in evapotranspiration (+15 to +36%) associated with a decrease in precipitation (−16 to −34%) in both climate scenarios. The hydrological projections indicated a significant decrease in runoff (−57 to −86%), more severe when the model is driven by WFDE5 compared to observed precipitation. 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Tramblay, Yves ; Hanich, Lahoucine ; Marchane, Ahmed ; Boudhar, Abdelghani ; Hakkani, Bouchaib</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c338t-ad9ecf58f13bbd3b2eee7bf437bdb2389aeacad4aba632c817937f5c7858e1e53</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Agriculture</topic><topic>Atmospheric precipitations</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climatic conditions</topic><topic>Confidence intervals</topic><topic>Discharge</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>EURO-CORDEX</topic><topic>Evapotranspiration</topic><topic>Hydroelectric power</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Morocco</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Regional climate models</topic><topic>Regional climates</topic><topic>Runoff</topic><topic>Surface runoff</topic><topic>Surface water</topic><topic>Surface water resources</topic><topic>Water balance</topic><topic>Water resources</topic><topic>WFDE5</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>El Khalki, El Mahdi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tramblay, Yves</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hanich, Lahoucine</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marchane, Ahmed</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boudhar, Abdelghani</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hakkani, Bouchaib</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Hydrological sciences journal</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>El Khalki, El Mahdi</au><au>Tramblay, Yves</au><au>Hanich, Lahoucine</au><au>Marchane, Ahmed</au><au>Boudhar, Abdelghani</au><au>Hakkani, Bouchaib</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Oued El Abid basin, Morocco</atitle><jtitle>Hydrological sciences journal</jtitle><date>2021-11-18</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>66</volume><issue>15</issue><spage>2132</spage><epage>2145</epage><pages>2132-2145</pages><issn>0262-6667</issn><eissn>2150-3435</eissn><abstract>Mediterranean countries are strongly affected by reduced surface water resources. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on runoff supply to the Bin El Ouidane dam in Morocco, the largest in the country in terms of hydropower production. A water balance model coupled with a stochastic calibration method to provide confidence intervals on simulated discharge is used to reproduce discharge using observed and bias-corrected ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) rainfall (WFDE5). Five regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative are considered to estimate the climate change impacts on surface runoff for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a future increase in evapotranspiration (+15 to +36%) associated with a decrease in precipitation (−16 to −34%) in both climate scenarios. The hydrological projections indicated a significant decrease in runoff (−57 to −86%), more severe when the model is driven by WFDE5 compared to observed precipitation. 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| subjects | Agriculture Atmospheric precipitations Climate change Climate models Climatic conditions Confidence intervals Discharge Environmental impact EURO-CORDEX Evapotranspiration Hydroelectric power Hydrology Morocco Precipitation Rain Rainfall Regional climate models Regional climates Runoff Surface runoff Surface water Surface water resources Water balance Water resources WFDE5 |
| title | Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Oued El Abid basin, Morocco |
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