Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question
Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-ter...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | European Journal of Political Economy 2021-09, Vol.69, p.102031, Article 102031 |
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| container_title | European Journal of Political Economy |
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| creator | Corsello, Francesco Neri, Stefano Tagliabracci, Alex |
| description | Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.
•Well-anchored long-term expectations are a sign of credibility of central banks.•Long-term inflation expectations have disanchored from ECB’s inflation aim.•Inflation expectations have become sensitive to negative inflation surprises after 2013.•Forecasters who participated in most survey rounds have more disanchored expectations.•A clear-cut and symmetric inflation target may contribute to reanchoring expectations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102031 |
| format | Article |
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•Well-anchored long-term expectations are a sign of credibility of central banks.•Long-term inflation expectations have disanchored from ECB’s inflation aim.•Inflation expectations have become sensitive to negative inflation surprises after 2013.•Forecasters who participated in most survey rounds have more disanchored expectations.•A clear-cut and symmetric inflation target may contribute to reanchoring expectations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0176-2680</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-5703</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102031</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Anchoring ; Expectations ; Inflation ; Inflation expectations ; Monetary policy ; Political economy ; Polls & surveys ; Professional forecasters ; Short term ; Survey data</subject><ispartof>European Journal of Political Economy, 2021-09, Vol.69, p.102031, Article 102031</ispartof><rights>2021 Elsevier B.V.</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Sep 2021</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c373t-8690047c572aa3fa5cbc105d75efa8b1c4fc6d84d3629511f0c51092d165afd93</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c373t-8690047c572aa3fa5cbc105d75efa8b1c4fc6d84d3629511f0c51092d165afd93</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4866-0801 ; 0000-0003-1899-8780</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102031$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Corsello, Francesco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Neri, Stefano</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tagliabracci, Alex</creatorcontrib><title>Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question</title><title>European Journal of Political Economy</title><description>Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.
•Well-anchored long-term expectations are a sign of credibility of central banks.•Long-term inflation expectations have disanchored from ECB’s inflation aim.•Inflation expectations have become sensitive to negative inflation surprises after 2013.•Forecasters who participated in most survey rounds have more disanchored expectations.•A clear-cut and symmetric inflation target may contribute to reanchoring expectations.</description><subject>Anchoring</subject><subject>Expectations</subject><subject>Inflation</subject><subject>Inflation expectations</subject><subject>Monetary policy</subject><subject>Political economy</subject><subject>Polls & surveys</subject><subject>Professional forecasters</subject><subject>Short term</subject><subject>Survey data</subject><issn>0176-2680</issn><issn>1873-5703</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7UB</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkE9LAzEQxYMoWGq_gix43ppJNsnmpKVoFQpe6jmk-UOz1E1NtoLf3tStZ-cyzPDePOaH0C3gOWDg993cdYe4dybOCSZQlgRTuEATaAWtmcD0Ek0wCF4T3uJrNMu5w6UaSVpJJ6he9GYXk7NVTJV1tT6PD9Vmp4cq5GrYuerz6PIQYn-DrrzeZzc79yl6f37aLF_q9dvqdblY14YKOtQtlyVBGCaI1tRrZrYGMLOCOa_bLZjGG27bxlJOJAPw2DDAkljgTHsr6RTdjXcPKf5mqy4eU18iFWGSct4A50XFR5VJMefkvDqk8KHTtwKsTnRUp_7oqBMdNdIpxsfR6MoPX8EllU1wvXE2JGcGZWP478QPrd9ulQ</recordid><startdate>20210901</startdate><enddate>20210901</enddate><creator>Corsello, Francesco</creator><creator>Neri, Stefano</creator><creator>Tagliabracci, Alex</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7UB</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4866-0801</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1899-8780</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210901</creationdate><title>Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question</title><author>Corsello, Francesco ; Neri, Stefano ; Tagliabracci, Alex</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c373t-8690047c572aa3fa5cbc105d75efa8b1c4fc6d84d3629511f0c51092d165afd93</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Anchoring</topic><topic>Expectations</topic><topic>Inflation</topic><topic>Inflation expectations</topic><topic>Monetary policy</topic><topic>Political economy</topic><topic>Polls & surveys</topic><topic>Professional forecasters</topic><topic>Short term</topic><topic>Survey data</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Corsello, Francesco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Neri, Stefano</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tagliabracci, Alex</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>European Journal of Political Economy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Corsello, Francesco</au><au>Neri, Stefano</au><au>Tagliabracci, Alex</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question</atitle><jtitle>European Journal of Political Economy</jtitle><date>2021-09-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>69</volume><spage>102031</spage><pages>102031-</pages><artnum>102031</artnum><issn>0176-2680</issn><eissn>1873-5703</eissn><abstract>Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.
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| ispartof | European Journal of Political Economy, 2021-09, Vol.69, p.102031, Article 102031 |
| issn | 0176-2680 1873-5703 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2593664166 |
| source | Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Access via ScienceDirect (Elsevier) |
| subjects | Anchoring Expectations Inflation Inflation expectations Monetary policy Political economy Polls & surveys Professional forecasters Short term Survey data |
| title | Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question |
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