Oil and gas development does not reduce duck pair abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

Conservation partners are concerned that oil and gas development in the Prairie Pothole Region may reduce the abundance of breeding duck pairs using associated wetland habitat. We conducted wetland-based surveys for breeding pairs of 5 species of dabbling ducks in the Bakken oil field during 2015–2017 across a gradient of oil and gas development intensity to test the hypothesis that the abundance of breeding duck pairs on survey wetlands would decrease as the development of oil and gas resources increased. We included covariates traditionally used to predict breeding duck pairs (i.e. wetland size and class) and a spatiotemporal index of disturbance when developing zero-inflated Poisson models relating pair abundance to environmental predictors. Similar to past analyses, pair abundance was strongly associated with wetland size. Our results were mixed and suggested that the abundance of early and late nesting species was positively and negatively related, respectively, to an index of disturbance that was largely driven by oil and gas development. Regardless of the direction of the relationship, effect sizes were small and not considered biologically significant. Our findings indicate that in our study area, strategies to conserve wetland resources for breeding duck pairs should not deviate from previous prioritization metrics within the range of oil and gas development we observed. We believe that our findings may have implications to similar landscapes within the Bakken. LAY SUMMARY Since 2008, the oil and gas development in the North Dakota and Montana portion of Bakken Oil Formation has increased dramatically. There is considerable overlap between the Bakken Oil Formation and important Prairie Pothole Region wetlands critical for waterfowl production. We surveyed breeding Blue-winged Teal, Gadwall, Mallard, Northern Pintail, and Northern Shoveler pairs from 2015 to 2017 to determine if breeding pair abundance was lower in proximity to a gradient of disturbance from oil and gas development. Our results were mixed but regardless, changes in pair abundance were small and we considered the potential biological effect to be small. We recommend that existing conservation tools continue to be used to identify important grassland and wetland resources in the region given that we did not observe a biologically significant reduction in breeding duck pairs.