Show Me the Money! Process Modeling in Pharma from the Investor’s Point of View
Process modeling in pharma is gradually gaining momentum in process development but budget restrictions are growing. We first examine whether and how current practices rationalize within a decision process framework with a fictitious investor facing a decision problem subject to incomplete informati...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Processes 2019-09, Vol.7 (9), p.596 |
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| container_title | Processes |
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| creator | Varsakelis, Christos Dessoy, Sandrine von Stosch, Moritz Pysik, Alexander |
| description | Process modeling in pharma is gradually gaining momentum in process development but budget restrictions are growing. We first examine whether and how current practices rationalize within a decision process framework with a fictitious investor facing a decision problem subject to incomplete information. We then develop an algorithmic procedure for investment evaluation on both monetary and diffusion-of-innovation fronts. Our methodology builds upon discounted cash flow analysis and Bayesian inference and utilizes the Rogers diffusion of innovation paradigm for computing lower expected returns. We also introduce a set of intangible metrics for quantifying the level of diffusion of process modeling within an organization. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3390/pr7090596 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Processes, 2019-09, Vol.7 (9), p.596 |
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| language | eng |
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| source | MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals |
| subjects | Bayesian analysis Costs Decision making Diffusion Discounted cash flow Employees Innovations Investigations Modelling Pharmaceutical industry Pharmaceuticals Portfolio management Production functions R&D Random variables Research & development Simulation Statistical inference |
| title | Show Me the Money! Process Modeling in Pharma from the Investor’s Point of View |
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