Evaluation of the social and economic impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on sustainable mobility using cumulative ordinal models: trend odds model

In the context of environmental sustainability evaluation, grouped under climate change, health and ecosystem themes, an impact that could be investigated is the Global Warming Potential (GWP), whose sources are a multitude. In urban areas the evaluation of real vehicles emissions is an essential activity in order to suggest possible solution to local administrators. They still express the need to improve and maintain the characteristics of the breathing air at the best possible quality level. Moreover, these solutions, such as planning measures or traffic control management in respect of pollution, would be apply at different geographical levels, i.e. national, regional or urban scale. Another factor to be investigated is the effect of technologies and emission control systems to comply more stringent limits (Euro 4/5/6) and improve air quality to a lower environmental impact. GWP, indicator of climate change, is measured in terms of CO2 equivalency emission values variable. To perform this activity an experimental campaign was carried out with several vehicles from different manufacturers and with a wide variety in terms of mass, power, engine displacement and type approval technology. The experimental plan includes some repetitions of the urban section in Naples city centre. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to provide a strategy on the choice of a logistic model with ordinal data and with trend, and, second, to evaluate the usefulness of such models for environmental sustainability (CO2 and other vehicular pollutant emissions), with particular emphasis on model formulation, the interpretation of model coefficients, and the implications of such models. •Ordered logit model.•Trend odds model.•Brant test.•Simpplot.•Sustainable mobility.•CO2 emissions.