RE-EXAMINING ANALYST SUPERIORITY IN FORECASTING RESULTS OF PUBLICLY-TRADED BRAZILIAN COMPANIES

ABSTRACT Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their tempo...

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Veröffentlicht in:RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie 2021, Vol.22 (1), p.1-31
Hauptverfasser: GATSIOS, RAFAEL C., LIMA, FABIANO G., GAIO, LUIZ E., PIMENTA JUNIOR, TABAJARA
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container_issue 1
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container_title RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie
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creator GATSIOS, RAFAEL C.
LIMA, FABIANO G.
GAIO, LUIZ E.
PIMENTA JUNIOR, TABAJARA
description ABSTRACT Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period. RESUMO Objetivo: Esta pesquisa analisa a superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos random walk ao preverem os resultados de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de curto e longo prazos. Originalidade/valor: A literatura indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado devido às suas vantagens de tempo e informação. Entretanto, recentes estudos da literatura internacional apontam para a necessidade de uma reavaliação dessa superioridade, indicando que, para determinadas características da empresa, e principalmente para estimativas de longo prazo, a superioridade dos analistas não é confirmada. Design /metodologia/abordagem: Este trabalho avalia as previsões de lucro dos analistas e dos modelos random walk, simples e com crescimento, de curto e longo prazos, no período de 2010 a 2015 para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, utilizando dados com periodicidade anual. Resultados: Os resultados indicam: 1. maior acurácia de previsão para os modelos random walk simples quando comparados com os modelos de random walk com crescimento; 2. para a
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Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period. RESUMO Objetivo: Esta pesquisa analisa a superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos random walk ao preverem os resultados de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de curto e longo prazos. Originalidade/valor: A literatura indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado devido às suas vantagens de tempo e informação. Entretanto, recentes estudos da literatura internacional apontam para a necessidade de uma reavaliação dessa superioridade, indicando que, para determinadas características da empresa, e principalmente para estimativas de longo prazo, a superioridade dos analistas não é confirmada. Design /metodologia/abordagem: Este trabalho avalia as previsões de lucro dos analistas e dos modelos random walk, simples e com crescimento, de curto e longo prazos, no período de 2010 a 2015 para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, utilizando dados com periodicidade anual. Resultados: Os resultados indicam: 1. maior acurácia de previsão para os modelos random walk simples quando comparados com os modelos de random walk com crescimento; 2. para a amostra total, nota-se maior acurácia da previsão dos modelos random walk, com superioridade dos analistas apenas para previsões com três meses de defasagem. A evidência sugere a superioridade de previsão dos modelos random walk quando comparados às previsões dos analistas de mercado. 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Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period. RESUMO Objetivo: Esta pesquisa analisa a superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos random walk ao preverem os resultados de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de curto e longo prazos. Originalidade/valor: A literatura indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado devido às suas vantagens de tempo e informação. 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Revista de Administração Mackenzie</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>GATSIOS, RAFAEL C.</au><au>LIMA, FABIANO G.</au><au>GAIO, LUIZ E.</au><au>PIMENTA JUNIOR, TABAJARA</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>RE-EXAMINING ANALYST SUPERIORITY IN FORECASTING RESULTS OF PUBLICLY-TRADED BRAZILIAN COMPANIES</atitle><jtitle>RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie</jtitle><date>2021</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>22</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>1</spage><epage>31</epage><pages>1-31</pages><issn>1678-6971</issn><issn>1518-6776</issn><eissn>1678-6971</eissn><abstract>ABSTRACT Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period. RESUMO Objetivo: Esta pesquisa analisa a superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos random walk ao preverem os resultados de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de curto e longo prazos. Originalidade/valor: A literatura indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado devido às suas vantagens de tempo e informação. Entretanto, recentes estudos da literatura internacional apontam para a necessidade de uma reavaliação dessa superioridade, indicando que, para determinadas características da empresa, e principalmente para estimativas de longo prazo, a superioridade dos analistas não é confirmada. Design /metodologia/abordagem: Este trabalho avalia as previsões de lucro dos analistas e dos modelos random walk, simples e com crescimento, de curto e longo prazos, no período de 2010 a 2015 para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, utilizando dados com periodicidade anual. Resultados: Os resultados indicam: 1. maior acurácia de previsão para os modelos random walk simples quando comparados com os modelos de random walk com crescimento; 2. para a amostra total, nota-se maior acurácia da previsão dos modelos random walk, com superioridade dos analistas apenas para previsões com três meses de defasagem. A evidência sugere a superioridade de previsão dos modelos random walk quando comparados às previsões dos analistas de mercado. Os resultados sugerem baixa eficiência das previsões dos analistas de mercado para a previsão de resultado futuro das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período analisado.</abstract><cop>São Paulo</cop><pub>Mackenzie Presbyterian University</pub><doi>10.1590/1678-6971/eramf210164</doi><tpages>31</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3106-7649</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4776-3673</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5438-7800</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4364-7157</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Accuracy
Capital markets
Earnings per share
Forecasting
title RE-EXAMINING ANALYST SUPERIORITY IN FORECASTING RESULTS OF PUBLICLY-TRADED BRAZILIAN COMPANIES
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