Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making
As part of the first author's expert testimony at a court trial, we investigated hindsight bias in perceptions of the predictability of a real flash flood. Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihoo...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Applied cognitive psychology 2021-05, Vol.35 (3), p.711-719 |
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| container_title | Applied cognitive psychology |
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| creator | Yama, Hiroshi Akita, Masashi Kawasaki, Takuya |
| description | As part of the first author's expert testimony at a court trial, we investigated hindsight bias in perceptions of the predictability of a real flash flood. Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihood of flooding in Experiment 1. Participants who were informed that a flash flood had occurred perceived the river as muddier and judged a flood to be more likely than control participants. Their judgment was biased by hindsight. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that when the causality from muddiness to flooding was instructed, participants judged the river as muddier. These results were interpreted as top‐down perception being implicitly adjusted by outcome information and causality information. The judges decided that the defendants had no responsibility to predict the flash flood, taking the hindsight bias into consideration. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/acp.3797 |
| format | Article |
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Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihood of flooding in Experiment 1. Participants who were informed that a flash flood had occurred perceived the river as muddier and judged a flood to be more likely than control participants. Their judgment was biased by hindsight. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that when the causality from muddiness to flooding was instructed, participants judged the river as muddier. These results were interpreted as top‐down perception being implicitly adjusted by outcome information and causality information. The judges decided that the defendants had no responsibility to predict the flash flood, taking the hindsight bias into consideration.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0888-4080</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1099-0720</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/acp.3797</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bognor Regis: Wiley</publisher><subject>Attribution Theory ; Authors ; Bias ; Causality ; Comparative Analysis ; Court decisions ; Court Litigation ; court trial ; Courts ; Decision Making ; Defendants ; Floods ; Hindsight bias ; Judges & magistrates ; Natural Disasters ; perceptual judgment ; Photography ; Prediction ; probability judgment ; Recall (Psychology) ; Testimony ; Trials</subject><ispartof>Applied cognitive psychology, 2021-05, Vol.35 (3), p.711-719</ispartof><rights>2021 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3427-fd21efa55de6a5d66e8575927115f8194d6c3aeac3ba4622ca59a0fbb804529e3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-1612-3550</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Facp.3797$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Facp.3797$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,1412,27905,27906,30980,45555,45556</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/detail?accno=EJ1294150$$DView record in ERIC$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Yama, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Akita, Masashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawasaki, Takuya</creatorcontrib><title>Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making</title><title>Applied cognitive psychology</title><description>As part of the first author's expert testimony at a court trial, we investigated hindsight bias in perceptions of the predictability of a real flash flood. Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihood of flooding in Experiment 1. Participants who were informed that a flash flood had occurred perceived the river as muddier and judged a flood to be more likely than control participants. Their judgment was biased by hindsight. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that when the causality from muddiness to flooding was instructed, participants judged the river as muddier. These results were interpreted as top‐down perception being implicitly adjusted by outcome information and causality information. The judges decided that the defendants had no responsibility to predict the flash flood, taking the hindsight bias into consideration.</description><subject>Attribution Theory</subject><subject>Authors</subject><subject>Bias</subject><subject>Causality</subject><subject>Comparative Analysis</subject><subject>Court decisions</subject><subject>Court Litigation</subject><subject>court trial</subject><subject>Courts</subject><subject>Decision Making</subject><subject>Defendants</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Hindsight bias</subject><subject>Judges & magistrates</subject><subject>Natural Disasters</subject><subject>perceptual judgment</subject><subject>Photography</subject><subject>Prediction</subject><subject>probability judgment</subject><subject>Recall (Psychology)</subject><subject>Testimony</subject><subject>Trials</subject><issn>0888-4080</issn><issn>1099-0720</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kM9u1DAQxi0EUpeC1BdAGokLlxTbiZOY22pV2qJK5QDnaOI_u16ydrC9KnkM3hgvi7j1Mh55fv7m80fIFaPXjFL-EdV8XXeye0FWjEpZ0Y7Tl2RF-76vGtrTC_I6pT2lVLaMr8jvO-d1cttdhtFhAudhf9Tbg_E5QbCQdwbmaLRTGUc3ubycbu2EaVdqCDp9grUH82s20Z1e4QQpH_UCNkTIJmV3CH4BzICgwjFmyNEVCL2GyWxLp41yyQUPB_zh_PYNeWVxSubtv_OSfP98821zVz083t5v1g-VqhveVVZzZiwKoU2LQret6UUnJO8YE7ZnstGtqtGgqkdsWs4VConUjmNPG8GlqS_J-7PuHMPPYzE67Is9X1YOXPDCMMnrQn04UyqGlKKxw1z-iXEZGB1OgQ8l8OEUeEHfndGShPqP3XxhXDZM0DKvzvMnN5nlWZ1hvfn6V-8PdZONRg</recordid><startdate>202105</startdate><enddate>202105</enddate><creator>Yama, Hiroshi</creator><creator>Akita, Masashi</creator><creator>Kawasaki, Takuya</creator><general>Wiley</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>7SW</scope><scope>BJH</scope><scope>BNH</scope><scope>BNI</scope><scope>BNJ</scope><scope>BNO</scope><scope>ERI</scope><scope>PET</scope><scope>REK</scope><scope>WWN</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>7TK</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1612-3550</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202105</creationdate><title>Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making</title><author>Yama, Hiroshi ; Akita, Masashi ; Kawasaki, Takuya</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3427-fd21efa55de6a5d66e8575927115f8194d6c3aeac3ba4622ca59a0fbb804529e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Attribution Theory</topic><topic>Authors</topic><topic>Bias</topic><topic>Causality</topic><topic>Comparative Analysis</topic><topic>Court decisions</topic><topic>Court Litigation</topic><topic>court trial</topic><topic>Courts</topic><topic>Decision Making</topic><topic>Defendants</topic><topic>Floods</topic><topic>Hindsight bias</topic><topic>Judges & magistrates</topic><topic>Natural Disasters</topic><topic>perceptual judgment</topic><topic>Photography</topic><topic>Prediction</topic><topic>probability judgment</topic><topic>Recall (Psychology)</topic><topic>Testimony</topic><topic>Trials</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Yama, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Akita, Masashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawasaki, Takuya</creatorcontrib><collection>ERIC</collection><collection>ERIC (Ovid)</collection><collection>ERIC</collection><collection>ERIC</collection><collection>ERIC (Legacy Platform)</collection><collection>ERIC( SilverPlatter )</collection><collection>ERIC</collection><collection>ERIC PlusText (Legacy Platform)</collection><collection>Education Resources Information Center (ERIC)</collection><collection>ERIC</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA)</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Applied cognitive psychology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Yama, Hiroshi</au><au>Akita, Masashi</au><au>Kawasaki, Takuya</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><ericid>EJ1294150</ericid><atitle>Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making</atitle><jtitle>Applied cognitive psychology</jtitle><date>2021-05</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>35</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>711</spage><epage>719</epage><pages>711-719</pages><issn>0888-4080</issn><eissn>1099-0720</eissn><abstract>As part of the first author's expert testimony at a court trial, we investigated hindsight bias in perceptions of the predictability of a real flash flood. Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihood of flooding in Experiment 1. Participants who were informed that a flash flood had occurred perceived the river as muddier and judged a flood to be more likely than control participants. Their judgment was biased by hindsight. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that when the causality from muddiness to flooding was instructed, participants judged the river as muddier. These results were interpreted as top‐down perception being implicitly adjusted by outcome information and causality information. The judges decided that the defendants had no responsibility to predict the flash flood, taking the hindsight bias into consideration.</abstract><cop>Bognor Regis</cop><pub>Wiley</pub><doi>10.1002/acp.3797</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1612-3550</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Applied cognitive psychology, 2021-05, Vol.35 (3), p.711-719 |
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| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA) |
| subjects | Attribution Theory Authors Bias Causality Comparative Analysis Court decisions Court Litigation court trial Courts Decision Making Defendants Floods Hindsight bias Judges & magistrates Natural Disasters perceptual judgment Photography Prediction probability judgment Recall (Psychology) Testimony Trials |
| title | Hindsight bias in judgments of the predictability of flash floods: An experimental study for testimony at a court trial and legal decision making |
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