Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years
Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology 2021-05, Vol.27 (10), p.2254-2268 |
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| creator | Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C. Stanley, Thomas R. Şekercioğlu, Çağan H. Newmark, William D. |
| description | Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark–recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one‐half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top‐ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature‐associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.
We assessed the relationship between the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical montane understory bird species and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation over 30 years. Population growth rates were negatively associated with temperature for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species after accounting for the association between temperature and time. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational range midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/gcb.15567 |
| format | Article |
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We assessed the relationship between the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical montane understory bird species and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation over 30 years. Population growth rates were negatively associated with temperature for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species after accounting for the association between temperature and time. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational range midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1354-1013</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1365-2486</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15567</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33687129</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Animals ; Annual precipitation ; Associated species ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; body mass ; Climate Change ; Climate effects ; Demographics ; Demography ; Eastern Arc Mountains ; elevational range ; Endemism ; Environmental impact ; Growth rate ; Model testing ; Montane environments ; Mountain forests ; Mountains ; Population dynamics ; Population growth ; population growth rate ; Precipitation ; Recruitment ; Species ; Survival ; Tanzania ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; Tropical environments ; tropical mountains ; Understory</subject><ispartof>Global change biology, 2021-05, Vol.27 (10), p.2254-2268</ispartof><rights>2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3537-adf328dc4c2cc1d56e9e59fbb9f6118a8898f0c71e0002c6da8c5d8967c4ee9b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3537-adf328dc4c2cc1d56e9e59fbb9f6118a8898f0c71e0002c6da8c5d8967c4ee9b3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-9753-6765</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fgcb.15567$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fgcb.15567$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33687129$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stanley, Thomas R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Newmark, William D.</creatorcontrib><title>Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years</title><title>Global change biology</title><addtitle>Glob Chang Biol</addtitle><description>Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark–recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one‐half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top‐ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature‐associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.
We assessed the relationship between the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical montane understory bird species and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation over 30 years. Population growth rates were negatively associated with temperature for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species after accounting for the association between temperature and time. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational range midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species.</description><subject>Animals</subject><subject>Annual precipitation</subject><subject>Associated species</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Birds</subject><subject>body mass</subject><subject>Climate Change</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Eastern Arc Mountains</subject><subject>elevational range</subject><subject>Endemism</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Growth rate</subject><subject>Model testing</subject><subject>Montane environments</subject><subject>Mountain forests</subject><subject>Mountains</subject><subject>Population dynamics</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>population growth rate</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Recruitment</subject><subject>Species</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Tanzania</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Tropical Climate</subject><subject>Tropical environments</subject><subject>tropical mountains</subject><subject>Understory</subject><issn>1354-1013</issn><issn>1365-2486</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kEFOwzAQRS0EoqWw4AIoEisWae04dpxlqaAgVWJT1pEznpRUTRPsFNQdR-AInIWjcBJcUtgxG8-Mn77lR8g5o0Pma7SAfMiEkMkB6TMuRRjFSh7uehGHjDLeIyfOLSmlPKLymPQ4lyphUdonMMeqQavbjcWvt3ftXA2lbtEEBsGiduiCcu2Hql5Y3TyVEHjYL-siGBe2bm3dlKBXQV5aE7gGodxdvqANOP382KK27pQcFXrl8Gx_Dsjj7c18chfOHqb3k_EsBC54EmpT8EgZiCECYEZITFGkRZ6nhWRMaaVSVVBIGPqPRCCNViCMSmUCMWKa8wG57HIbWz9v0LXZst7YtX8yiwTjVHktwlNXHQW2ds5ikTW2rLTdZoxmO52Z15n96PTsxT5xk1do_shffx4YdcBrucLt_0nZdHLdRX4DrgyBeA</recordid><startdate>202105</startdate><enddate>202105</enddate><creator>Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C.</creator><creator>Stanley, Thomas R.</creator><creator>Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.</creator><creator>Newmark, William D.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9753-6765</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202105</creationdate><title>Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years</title><author>Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C. ; Stanley, Thomas R. ; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H. ; Newmark, William D.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3537-adf328dc4c2cc1d56e9e59fbb9f6118a8898f0c71e0002c6da8c5d8967c4ee9b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Annual precipitation</topic><topic>Associated species</topic><topic>Biodiversity</topic><topic>Birds</topic><topic>body mass</topic><topic>Climate Change</topic><topic>Climate effects</topic><topic>Demographics</topic><topic>Demography</topic><topic>Eastern Arc Mountains</topic><topic>elevational range</topic><topic>Endemism</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>Growth rate</topic><topic>Model testing</topic><topic>Montane environments</topic><topic>Mountain forests</topic><topic>Mountains</topic><topic>Population dynamics</topic><topic>Population growth</topic><topic>population growth rate</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Recruitment</topic><topic>Species</topic><topic>Survival</topic><topic>Tanzania</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Tropical Climate</topic><topic>Tropical environments</topic><topic>tropical mountains</topic><topic>Understory</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stanley, Thomas R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Newmark, William D.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C.</au><au>Stanley, Thomas R.</au><au>Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.</au><au>Newmark, William D.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years</atitle><jtitle>Global change biology</jtitle><addtitle>Glob Chang Biol</addtitle><date>2021-05</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>27</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>2254</spage><epage>2268</epage><pages>2254-2268</pages><issn>1354-1013</issn><eissn>1365-2486</eissn><abstract>Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark–recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one‐half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top‐ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature‐associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.
We assessed the relationship between the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical montane understory bird species and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation over 30 years. Population growth rates were negatively associated with temperature for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species after accounting for the association between temperature and time. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational range midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><pmid>33687129</pmid><doi>10.1111/gcb.15567</doi><tpages>0</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9753-6765</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Animals Annual precipitation Associated species Biodiversity Birds body mass Climate Change Climate effects Demographics Demography Eastern Arc Mountains elevational range Endemism Environmental impact Growth rate Model testing Montane environments Mountain forests Mountains Population dynamics Population growth population growth rate Precipitation Recruitment Species Survival Tanzania Temperature Tropical Climate Tropical environments tropical mountains Understory |
| title | Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years |
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