Activity evolution of landslides and debris flows after the Wenchuan earthquake in the Qipan catchment, Southwest China

The Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 induced numerous landslides. Loose landslide materials were deposited on hillslopes, and deep channels were easily remobilized and transformed into debris flows by extreme rainstorms. Twelve years after the Wenchuan earthquake, debris flows were still active in the Qipangou Ravine in the quake-hit area. In this paper, we continuously tracked the spatiotemporal evolution of the landslides and vegetation restoration and evaluated the evolution of debris flow activity in the Qipan catchment with the aid of a GIS platform and field investigations from 2008 to 2019. We observed that the area with active landslides increased sharply immediately following the earthquake, and then decreased with time; however, the total area of landslides continued to increase from 6.93 km 2 in 2008 to 10.55 km 2 in 2019. The active landslides shifted towards lower angles and higher elevations after 2013. Since 2009, the vegetation coverage has been gradually increasing and approaching the coverage present before the earthquake as of 2019. The landslide activity was high and the vegetation recovery rates were rapidly rising during the first five years after the earthquake; the recovery rates then slowed over time. Therefore, we divided the evolution that occurred during the post landslide period into an active period (2008–2013), a self-adjustment period (2013–2026) and a stable period (after 2026). We then proposed a quantitative model to determine the trends of landslide activity rates and NDVI values in the catchment, which indicated that the landslide activities and postseismic vegetation restoration rates in this catchment will return to preseismic levels within approximately two decades. We also analysed the runout volumes of the debris flows after the earthquakes (Diexi and Wenchuan) and the standard deviation of the vegetation coverage and predicted that the debris flow activities will last for an additional 50 years or more.