Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998
Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of climate 2018-10, Vol.31 (20), p.8211-8224 |
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| creator | Zhao, Jiuwei Zhan, Ruifen Wang, Yuqing Xu, Haiming |
| description | Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0202.1 |
| format | Article |
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In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0894-8755</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1520-0442</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0202.1</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston: American Meteorological Society</publisher><subject>Algorithms ; Cluster analysis ; Clustering ; Computational fluid dynamics ; Cyclones ; El Nino phenomena ; Fluid dynamics ; General circulation models ; Geophysical fluids ; Hurricanes ; Hydrodynamics ; La Nina ; Monsoon trough ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Sea surface temperature anomalies ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical analysis of data ; Statistical methods ; Surface temperature ; Temperature anomalies ; Tropical circulation ; Tropical climate ; Tropical cyclones ; Typhoons ; Walker circulation</subject><ispartof>Journal of climate, 2018-10, Vol.31 (20), p.8211-8224</ispartof><rights>2018 American Meteorological Society</rights><rights>Copyright American Meteorological Society Oct 2018</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c448t-922b91097294d95c9591d76355d6945eb59345eac7b55774bb10d982ea612f5b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c448t-922b91097294d95c9591d76355d6945eb59345eac7b55774bb10d982ea612f5b3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/26508069$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/26508069$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,3680,27923,27924,58016,58249</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Jiuwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhan, Ruifen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yuqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Haiming</creatorcontrib><title>Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998</title><title>Journal of climate</title><description>Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October.</description><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Cluster analysis</subject><subject>Clustering</subject><subject>Computational fluid dynamics</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>El Nino phenomena</subject><subject>Fluid dynamics</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>Geophysical fluids</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Hydrodynamics</subject><subject>La Nina</subject><subject>Monsoon trough</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature anomalies</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical analysis of data</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Temperature anomalies</subject><subject>Tropical circulation</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><subject>Typhoons</subject><subject>Walker 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anomalies</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Statistical analysis of data</topic><topic>Statistical methods</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>Temperature anomalies</topic><topic>Tropical circulation</topic><topic>Tropical climate</topic><topic>Tropical cyclones</topic><topic>Typhoons</topic><topic>Walker circulation</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Jiuwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhan, Ruifen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yuqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Xu, Haiming</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni 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Pacific since 1998</atitle><jtitle>Journal of climate</jtitle><date>2018-10-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>31</volume><issue>20</issue><spage>8211</spage><epage>8224</epage><pages>8211-8224</pages><issn>0894-8755</issn><eissn>1520-0442</eissn><abstract>Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October.</abstract><cop>Boston</cop><pub>American Meteorological Society</pub><doi>10.1175/jcli-d-18-0202.1</doi><tpages>14</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Algorithms Cluster analysis Clustering Computational fluid dynamics Cyclones El Nino phenomena Fluid dynamics General circulation models Geophysical fluids Hurricanes Hydrodynamics La Nina Monsoon trough Sea surface Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature anomalies Statistical analysis Statistical analysis of data Statistical methods Surface temperature Temperature anomalies Tropical circulation Tropical climate Tropical cyclones Typhoons Walker circulation |
| title | Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998 |
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