Spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on regional GDP and population spatial distribution

Land use change caused by economic development and population agglomeration has a significant impact on the ecological environment of a region. Habitat quality assessment can reflect the status of regional biodiversity to a certain extent. Analyzing the relationship between regional habitat quality and socio-economic and population density can provide scientific basis for regionally ecological security and sustainable development. In this study, the InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality using four phases of land use data in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018. The study combined the data of socio-economic and population density to explore the trade-off relationship between urban development and habitat quality in various regions, and predicted the habitat quality of the Bay Area in 2030 under different scenarios. The results show that:(1) from 2005 to 2018, the overall habitat quality of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area decreased year by year, indicating a ring-shaped distribution with a low central and high surrounding area.(2) The habitat quality of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta has a weakly negative correlation with total regional GDP, a medium positive correlation with the output value of the primary industry, a medium negative correlation with the output value of the secondary industry, and a weakly positive correlation with the output value of the tertiary industry.(3) There is a large imbalance between habitat quality and population density in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The main spaces are two types: high habitat quality-low population density, low habitat quality-high population density.(4) Through space control zoning, it is predicted that the average habitat quality of the Greater Bay Area will increase by 0.04 to 0.599 under the planned protection of the Greater Bay Area in 2030.