Pre‐instrumental summer precipitation variability in northwestern Greece from a high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii network

The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is of vital importance to Mediterranean ecology and economy, but pre‐instrumental changes are not well understood. Here, we present a millennial‐length June–July precipitation reconstruction derived from a network of 22 Pinus heldreichii high‐elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of northwestern Greece. Tree‐ring width chronologies from these sites cohere exceptionally well over the past several hundred years (r1467–2015 = 0.64) revealing coherence at inter‐annual to centennial timescales across the network. The network mean calibrates significantly against instrumental June–July precipitation over the past 40 years (r1976–2015 = 0.71), even though no high‐elevation observational record is available representing the moist conditions at the treeline above 1,900 m a.s.l. For the final reconstruction, the instrumental target data are adjusted to provide realistic estimates of high‐elevation summer rainfall back to 729 CE. The reconstruction contains substantially more low‐frequency variability than other high‐resolution hydroclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean including extended dry periods from 1,350 to 1,379 CE (39 ± 4.5 mm) and 913 to 942 (40 ± 8.4 mm), and moist periods from 862 to 891 (86 ± 11 mm) and 1,522 to 1,551 (80 ± 3.5 mm), relative to the long‐term mean of 61 mm. The most recent 30‐year period from 1986 to 2015 is characterized by above average June–July precipitation (73 ± 2 mm). Low‐frequency changes in summer precipitation are likely related to variations in the position and persistence of storm tracks steering local depressions and causing extensive rainfall (or lack thereof) in high‐elevation environments of the Pindus Mountains. Associated with a strengthening of circum‐global sub‐tropical high‐pressure belts, climate models unequivocally predict a decrease of Mediterranean precipitation, accompanied by an increase of extreme events in the upcoming decades. Long‐term desiccation will amplify evaporative demand challenging plant metabolism and foster an even greater need to irrigate Mediterranean crops. We place these recent hydroclimate dynamics into a long‐term context and explore the feasibility of reconstructing low‐frequency precipitation variability by employing a large network of high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii sites from northwestern Greece.