Wild Turkey Nest Success in Pine-Dominated Forests of the Southeastern United States

Nest success is a primary component of productivity for wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo; turkeys) and there is concern that turkey productivity is declining across the southeastern United States. We evaluated the influence of nest site and landscape characteristics on risk of nest failure for turkeys in pine (Pinus spp.)-dominated forests across the southeastern United States. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate daily hazard of nest failure associated with nest site and landscape metrics within 500-m and 1-km buffers centered on nests. Of 451 nests monitored (n=320 females) between 2014 and 2018, 76% failed, with predation as the primary cause. Daily hazard of nest failure increased by 1.2% for each day that females delayed nest incubation following the mean nesting date (29 Apr; βday=0.010±0.002 [SE]; hazard ratio [HR]=1.01, 95% CI=1.006–1.015). Environmental covariates associated with risk of nest failure included the maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and distance to the nearest ecotone. Daily hazard increased with increasing distance away from an ecotone (βecotone =0.16±0.06; HR=1.17, CI=1.03–1.32) and with lower EVI around the nest (βEVI = −0.30±0.06; HR=0.74, CI=0.65–0.83). Additional nest site or landscape covariates were included in competitive models but did not influence risk of nest failure significantly. Our study highlights the importance of considering landscape context when designing and implementing land management actions intended to enhance wild turkey reproduction. Our findings suggest that landscape metrics thought to be important to turkeys in northern agro-forested landscapes may not be relevant to turkeys in pine ecosystems of the southeastern United States.