A prediction model for rock planar slides with large displacement triggered by heavy rainfall in the Red bed area, Southwest, China

Landslides with large displacements are more dangerous than landslides with small displacements, because the first category causes more serious damages. In this paper, a new prediction method is introduced for rock planar slides with large displacements. The prediction model is not limited to a certain region but limited to a certain failure mechanism of a landslide. This case study was carried out in the red bed area, Nanjiang County, Sichuan Province, China, and validated in the red bed area of Yunyang and Fengjie Counties, Chongqing, China. The topographic factor T was proposed as a topographical indicator. The influence of the normalized rainfall R which is a combination of the duration of rainfall ( D ) and the average intensity ( I ) of rainfall was analyzed. A threshold value for rock planar sliding with large displacement was obtained by establishing a relationship between the T factor and the R factor. The primary probability factor P gives a final indication of the probability of rock planar sliding with large displacement. The prediction model is applied to the existing rock planar slides or the slopes with the presence of a number of preconditions for sliding. The prediction model obtained from Nanjiang County was validated successfully in the red bed area of the Yunyang and Fengjie Counties. It is assumed that the prediction model is suitable for other regions with a red bed structure as well.