Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone
This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2021-02, Vol.164 (3-4), Article 25 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 3-4 |
| container_start_page | |
| container_title | Climatic change |
| container_volume | 164 |
| creator | Mori, Nobuhito Ariyoshi, Nozomi Shimura, Tomoya Miyashita, Takuya Ninomiya, Junichi |
| description | This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/
∘
C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2484413453</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2484413453</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c385t-6c6b33715a359c040e06f202cb7f6daab3694343e279ad6eff6f252b57888fce3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9UEtLAzEQDqJgrf4BTwHPq8km2cdRivVBwYueQzadbbN0kzXJQvs3_MWmruBFPAwzzHwP5kPompJbSkh5FygRFc9ITlPVFcn2J2hGRckyyityimaEFiIjhNTn6CKE7jiVeTFDn8sxjh7w4F0HOhpnsWtxr_amH3s8uAg2GrXDITrf4zD6DeAtmM02YhVx3HqAhO6cx406BGwsflGDsngMxm7SHf7QMjZNwcTD0Urh6N1gdNrrg945C5forFW7AFc_fY7elw9vi6ds9fr4vLhfZZpVImaFLhrGSioUE7UmnAAp2pzkuinbYq1Uw4qaM84gL2u1LqBt01nkjSirqmo1sDm6mXTT7x8jhCg7N3qbLGXOK84p44IlVD6htHcheGjl4E2v_EFSIo_Zyyl7mbKX39nLfSKxiRQS2G7A_0r_w_oCeTKK_A</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2484413453</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone</title><source>SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings</source><creator>Mori, Nobuhito ; Ariyoshi, Nozomi ; Shimura, Tomoya ; Miyashita, Takuya ; Ninomiya, Junichi</creator><creatorcontrib>Mori, Nobuhito ; Ariyoshi, Nozomi ; Shimura, Tomoya ; Miyashita, Takuya ; Ninomiya, Junichi</creatorcontrib><description>This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/
∘
C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Atmospheric Sciences ; Bays ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Cyclones ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Extreme weather ; Height ; Hurricanes ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Storm surges ; Storms ; Surface temperature ; Tidal waves ; Tropical climate ; Tropical cyclone intensities ; Tropical cyclones</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2021-02, Vol.164 (3-4), Article 25</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021. corrected publication 2021</rights><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021. corrected publication 2021.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c385t-6c6b33715a359c040e06f202cb7f6daab3694343e279ad6eff6f252b57888fce3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c385t-6c6b33715a359c040e06f202cb7f6daab3694343e279ad6eff6f252b57888fce3</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-9082-3235 ; 0000-0002-3196-2726 ; 0000-0001-8284-0668 ; 0000-0001-5543-8817</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27923,27924,41487,42556,51318</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mori, Nobuhito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ariyoshi, Nozomi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shimura, Tomoya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miyashita, Takuya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ninomiya, Junichi</creatorcontrib><title>Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/
∘
C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.</description><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Bays</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Height</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Storm surges</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Tidal waves</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical cyclone intensities</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><issn>0165-0009</issn><issn>1573-1480</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp9UEtLAzEQDqJgrf4BTwHPq8km2cdRivVBwYueQzadbbN0kzXJQvs3_MWmruBFPAwzzHwP5kPompJbSkh5FygRFc9ITlPVFcn2J2hGRckyyityimaEFiIjhNTn6CKE7jiVeTFDn8sxjh7w4F0HOhpnsWtxr_amH3s8uAg2GrXDITrf4zD6DeAtmM02YhVx3HqAhO6cx406BGwsflGDsngMxm7SHf7QMjZNwcTD0Urh6N1gdNrrg945C5forFW7AFc_fY7elw9vi6ds9fr4vLhfZZpVImaFLhrGSioUE7UmnAAp2pzkuinbYq1Uw4qaM84gL2u1LqBt01nkjSirqmo1sDm6mXTT7x8jhCg7N3qbLGXOK84p44IlVD6htHcheGjl4E2v_EFSIo_Zyyl7mbKX39nLfSKxiRQS2G7A_0r_w_oCeTKK_A</recordid><startdate>20210201</startdate><enddate>20210201</enddate><creator>Mori, Nobuhito</creator><creator>Ariyoshi, Nozomi</creator><creator>Shimura, Tomoya</creator><creator>Miyashita, Takuya</creator><creator>Ninomiya, Junichi</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9082-3235</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3196-2726</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8284-0668</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5543-8817</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210201</creationdate><title>Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone</title><author>Mori, Nobuhito ; Ariyoshi, Nozomi ; Shimura, Tomoya ; Miyashita, Takuya ; Ninomiya, Junichi</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c385t-6c6b33715a359c040e06f202cb7f6daab3694343e279ad6eff6f252b57888fce3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Atmospheric Sciences</topic><topic>Bays</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Cyclones</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Extreme weather</topic><topic>Height</topic><topic>Hurricanes</topic><topic>Sea surface</topic><topic>Sea surface temperature</topic><topic>Storm surges</topic><topic>Storms</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>Tidal waves</topic><topic>Tropical climate</topic><topic>Tropical cyclone intensities</topic><topic>Tropical cyclones</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mori, Nobuhito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ariyoshi, Nozomi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shimura, Tomoya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miyashita, Takuya</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ninomiya, Junichi</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>University of Michigan</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mori, Nobuhito</au><au>Ariyoshi, Nozomi</au><au>Shimura, Tomoya</au><au>Miyashita, Takuya</au><au>Ninomiya, Junichi</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone</atitle><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle><stitle>Climatic Change</stitle><date>2021-02-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>164</volume><issue>3-4</issue><artnum>25</artnum><issn>0165-0009</issn><eissn>1573-1480</eissn><abstract>This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/
∘
C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9082-3235</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3196-2726</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8284-0668</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5543-8817</orcidid></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0165-0009 |
| ispartof | Climatic change, 2021-02, Vol.164 (3-4), Article 25 |
| issn | 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2484413453 |
| source | SpringerLink Journals - AutoHoldings |
| subjects | Atmospheric Sciences Bays Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Cyclones Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Extreme weather Height Hurricanes Sea surface Sea surface temperature Storm surges Storms Surface temperature Tidal waves Tropical climate Tropical cyclone intensities Tropical cyclones |
| title | Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-08T17%3A21%3A29IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Future%20projection%20of%20maximum%20potential%20storm%20surge%20height%20at%20three%20major%20bays%20in%20Japan%20using%20the%20maximum%20potential%20intensity%20of%20a%20tropical%20cyclone&rft.jtitle=Climatic%20change&rft.au=Mori,%20Nobuhito&rft.date=2021-02-01&rft.volume=164&rft.issue=3-4&rft.artnum=25&rft.issn=0165-0009&rft.eissn=1573-1480&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2484413453%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2484413453&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |