State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid
Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shi...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Population ecology 2021-01, Vol.63 (1), p.27-40 |
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creator | Nishijima, Shota Kubota, Hiroshi Kaga, Toshiki Okamoto, Suguru Miyahara, Hisae Okamura, Hiroshi |
description | Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shifts in this species is generally difficult and unreliable because the short‐lived nature of this species inherently confounds the effect of regime shifts with observation and process errors. Here we developed a new state‐space assessment model to evaluate the influence of regime shifts on the spawner‐recruit relationship of the Japanese flying squid. The model simultaneously estimates the population dynamics of multiple stocks that could share some life history parameters, thereby stabilizing parameter inference. We demonstrate that two regime shifts in productivity around 1991 and 2015 caused two‐ to threefold changes of maximum sustainable yields. The model with regime shifts clarifies the relationship between fishing pressure and spawner abundance that is difficult to detect in a model with no regime shift. The state‐space approach is a promising tool for accurately assessing stock status by separating the recruitment process from observation errors and is expected to contribute to the effective management of marine biological resources sensitive to regime shifts.
A new state‐space stock assessment model revealed the occurrence of productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid, Todarodes pacificus. The regime shifts caused about two‐ or threefold change of maximum sustainable yield of this species. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1002/1438-390X.12062 |
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A new state‐space stock assessment model revealed the occurrence of productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid, Todarodes pacificus. The regime shifts caused about two‐ or threefold change of maximum sustainable yield of this species.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1438-3896</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1438-390X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/1438-390X.12062</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Hoboken, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>biological reference points ; Catch per unit effort ; Cephalopod fisheries ; Environmental conditions ; Errors ; Fisheries ; Fishery resources ; Fishing ; Fishing effort ; Fishing pressure ; Japanese common squid ; Life history ; Marine biology ; Marine molluscs ; Marine resources ; Mathematical models ; multistock modeling ; Parameters ; Population dynamics ; Productivity ; Recruitment (fisheries) ; Resource management ; Squid ; Stabilizing ; state‐space stock assessment model ; Stock assessment ; Stocks ; Sustainable yield ; template model builder</subject><ispartof>Population ecology, 2021-01, Vol.63 (1), p.27-40</ispartof><rights>2020 The Authors. published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Society of Population Ecology.</rights><rights>2020. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3382-5a498131fa523b4333df6c0aba16892e95df5e82b4c8713f4f42d2ea418258c73</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3382-5a498131fa523b4333df6c0aba16892e95df5e82b4c8713f4f42d2ea418258c73</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-8806-5823</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F1438-390X.12062$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F1438-390X.12062$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Nishijima, Shota</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kubota, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kaga, Toshiki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okamoto, Suguru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miyahara, Hisae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okamura, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><title>State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid</title><title>Population ecology</title><description>Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shifts in this species is generally difficult and unreliable because the short‐lived nature of this species inherently confounds the effect of regime shifts with observation and process errors. Here we developed a new state‐space assessment model to evaluate the influence of regime shifts on the spawner‐recruit relationship of the Japanese flying squid. The model simultaneously estimates the population dynamics of multiple stocks that could share some life history parameters, thereby stabilizing parameter inference. We demonstrate that two regime shifts in productivity around 1991 and 2015 caused two‐ to threefold changes of maximum sustainable yields. The model with regime shifts clarifies the relationship between fishing pressure and spawner abundance that is difficult to detect in a model with no regime shift. The state‐space approach is a promising tool for accurately assessing stock status by separating the recruitment process from observation errors and is expected to contribute to the effective management of marine biological resources sensitive to regime shifts.
A new state‐space stock assessment model revealed the occurrence of productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid, Todarodes pacificus. The regime shifts caused about two‐ or threefold change of maximum sustainable yield of this species.</description><subject>biological reference points</subject><subject>Catch per unit effort</subject><subject>Cephalopod fisheries</subject><subject>Environmental conditions</subject><subject>Errors</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>Fishery resources</subject><subject>Fishing</subject><subject>Fishing effort</subject><subject>Fishing pressure</subject><subject>Japanese common squid</subject><subject>Life history</subject><subject>Marine biology</subject><subject>Marine molluscs</subject><subject>Marine resources</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>multistock modeling</subject><subject>Parameters</subject><subject>Population dynamics</subject><subject>Productivity</subject><subject>Recruitment (fisheries)</subject><subject>Resource management</subject><subject>Squid</subject><subject>Stabilizing</subject><subject>state‐space stock assessment model</subject><subject>Stock assessment</subject><subject>Stocks</subject><subject>Sustainable yield</subject><subject>template model builder</subject><issn>1438-3896</issn><issn>1438-390X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkE1Lw0AQhhdRsFbPXhc8p92vpJujlPpFoQUreFu2m9m6JW3S3UTJzZ_gb_SXmBj16mmG4X1mhgehS0pGlBA2poLLiKfkeUQZSdgRGvxNjn97mSan6CyELSF0kiRsgFaPla7g8_0jlNoA3hUZ5G6_wSbX3lkHAZe-yGpTuVdXNdjDxu0Ahxdnq4ALix90qfcQANu86bhwqF12jk6szgNc_NQherqZraZ30Xxxez-9nkeGc8miWItUUk6tjhlfC855ZhND9FrTRKYM0jizMUi2FkZOKLfCCpYx0IJKFksz4UN01e9tfzzUECq1LWq_b08qJiTtIMba1LhPGV-E4MGq0rud9o2iRHXqVCdHdaLUt7qWSHrizeXQ_BdXy8Vy1oNftmtx8Q</recordid><startdate>202101</startdate><enddate>202101</enddate><creator>Nishijima, Shota</creator><creator>Kubota, Hiroshi</creator><creator>Kaga, Toshiki</creator><creator>Okamoto, Suguru</creator><creator>Miyahara, Hisae</creator><creator>Okamura, Hiroshi</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8806-5823</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202101</creationdate><title>State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid</title><author>Nishijima, Shota ; Kubota, Hiroshi ; Kaga, Toshiki ; Okamoto, Suguru ; Miyahara, Hisae ; Okamura, Hiroshi</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3382-5a498131fa523b4333df6c0aba16892e95df5e82b4c8713f4f42d2ea418258c73</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>biological reference points</topic><topic>Catch per unit effort</topic><topic>Cephalopod fisheries</topic><topic>Environmental conditions</topic><topic>Errors</topic><topic>Fisheries</topic><topic>Fishery resources</topic><topic>Fishing</topic><topic>Fishing effort</topic><topic>Fishing pressure</topic><topic>Japanese common squid</topic><topic>Life history</topic><topic>Marine biology</topic><topic>Marine molluscs</topic><topic>Marine resources</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>multistock modeling</topic><topic>Parameters</topic><topic>Population dynamics</topic><topic>Productivity</topic><topic>Recruitment (fisheries)</topic><topic>Resource management</topic><topic>Squid</topic><topic>Stabilizing</topic><topic>state‐space stock assessment model</topic><topic>Stock assessment</topic><topic>Stocks</topic><topic>Sustainable yield</topic><topic>template model builder</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Nishijima, Shota</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kubota, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kaga, Toshiki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okamoto, Suguru</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miyahara, Hisae</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okamura, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 1: Biological Sciences & Living Resources</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Population ecology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Nishijima, Shota</au><au>Kubota, Hiroshi</au><au>Kaga, Toshiki</au><au>Okamoto, Suguru</au><au>Miyahara, Hisae</au><au>Okamura, Hiroshi</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid</atitle><jtitle>Population ecology</jtitle><date>2021-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>63</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>27</spage><epage>40</epage><pages>27-40</pages><issn>1438-3896</issn><eissn>1438-390X</eissn><abstract>Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shifts in this species is generally difficult and unreliable because the short‐lived nature of this species inherently confounds the effect of regime shifts with observation and process errors. Here we developed a new state‐space assessment model to evaluate the influence of regime shifts on the spawner‐recruit relationship of the Japanese flying squid. The model simultaneously estimates the population dynamics of multiple stocks that could share some life history parameters, thereby stabilizing parameter inference. We demonstrate that two regime shifts in productivity around 1991 and 2015 caused two‐ to threefold changes of maximum sustainable yields. The model with regime shifts clarifies the relationship between fishing pressure and spawner abundance that is difficult to detect in a model with no regime shift. The state‐space approach is a promising tool for accurately assessing stock status by separating the recruitment process from observation errors and is expected to contribute to the effective management of marine biological resources sensitive to regime shifts.
A new state‐space stock assessment model revealed the occurrence of productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid, Todarodes pacificus. The regime shifts caused about two‐ or threefold change of maximum sustainable yield of this species.</abstract><cop>Hoboken, USA</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1002/1438-390X.12062</doi><tpages>14</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8806-5823</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | biological reference points Catch per unit effort Cephalopod fisheries Environmental conditions Errors Fisheries Fishery resources Fishing Fishing effort Fishing pressure Japanese common squid Life history Marine biology Marine molluscs Marine resources Mathematical models multistock modeling Parameters Population dynamics Productivity Recruitment (fisheries) Resource management Squid Stabilizing state‐space stock assessment model Stock assessment Stocks Sustainable yield template model builder |
title | State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid |
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