Has the impact of heatwaves on mortality changed in Slovenia? A study of the heatwaves, 2014-2018

Abstract Background Heat waves are associated with increased mortality. In the last years the decreasing trend has been observed. Methods We estimated relative risks for number of deaths, for the observed diagnoses, sex and age, as well as 95% confidence intervals and excess deaths associated with heat waves occurring in the years from 2014 to 2018. Results Statistically significant were: in 2014, all, all causes (RR 1.26 (95% CI, 1.14-1.40); male, all causes (1.26 (1.09-1.45)); female, all causes (1.27 (1.11-1.44)); 5-74 years, all causes (1.26 (1.07-1.49)): 75+ years, all causes (1.27 (1.12-1.43)); all, circulatory system (1.24 (1.06-1.45)): female, circulatory system (1.27 (1.04-1.55)); 75+ years, circulatory system (1.3 (1.1-1.55)); female, 75+ years, circulatory system (1.33 (1.08-1.64)) and all, neoplasms (1.33 (1.11-1.59)), in 2015, 75+ years, all causes (1.11 (1.00-1.22)); all, circulatory system (1.14 (1.01-1.3)) and 75+ years, circulatory system (1.17 (1.01-1.34)), in 2016, 5-74 years, circulatory system (1.17 (1.01-1.34)) and male, 5-74 years, circulatory system (1.41 (1.01-1.99)), in 2017 and 2018 no statistically significance appeared. Conclusions Despite increasing heat load in observed years, we did not notice a statistically significant association between heat waves and the number of deaths in the last observed years 2017 and 2018. The results indirectly indicate that we are on the right track with public health efforts to raise awareness among Slovenes about the danger of heatwaves and appropriate measures. Key messages Heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and will last longer in the future, Due to these facts public health efforts are continously needed. The population is growing old and chronical noncommunicating diseases increases, so the burden of heatwaves will continue for voulnerable groups.