Urban house prices and investments in small and medium-sized industrial firms: Evidence from provinces of Iran

Using data from provinces of Iran from 2005 to 2016 and applying panel cointegrating regressions, I find that increases in real house prices have a negative and statistically significant effect on investments in small and medium-sized industrial firms. There are at least three possible mechanisms through which increases in house prices adversely affect industrial entrepreneurship. They (1) generate housing construction investment opportunities with high returns, (2) attract many urban adults with tertiary education to the real estate brokerage industry, and (3) encourage people to save more to buy houses (which is one of the prerequisites for marriage in Iran). 利用伊朗各省2005年至2016年的数据并运用面板协整回归分析，我发现实际房价的上涨对中小型实业企业投资有着负面的统计显著影响。房价上涨至少通过三种可能的机制对实业创业产生不利影响。房价上涨(1)创造高回报的住房建设投资机会，(2)吸引许多受过高等教育的城市成年人进入房地产经纪行业，(3)鼓励人们存钱买房（这是伊朗人结婚的前提条件之一）。