Policy targets behind green bonds for renewable energy: Do climate commitments matter?

•NDCs exert large, significant impacts on green bonds for renewable energy.•NDC stringency affects the volume of green bond proceeds for renewable energy.•NDC stringency similarly impacts green bonds in developed and developing countries.•Renewable energy policy supports exert insignificant effects on green bond proceeds.•NDCs promote emissions reductions via green bond allocations to renewable energy. Green bond markets are expanding precipitously and proceeds are increasingly being allocated to renewable energy. There is a gap in the empirical literature on the policies affecting green bond finance for the renewable energy assets critical to achieving Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets. To assess the impact that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement have on green bond finance for renewable energy, this study employed a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis using an original panel dataset of $25 billion in green bond proceeds allocations in 66 countries between 2008 and 2017. An original normalized index of NDC robustness was constructed to measure unique NDC impacts on green bond disbursements to renewable energy. The results are the first to show that in the years following their submission in 2015, comparatively stringent NDCs demonstrated large positive impacts on green bond allocations to renewable energy with 99% statistical significance. These findings suggest that beyond conventional economic policy supports, climate commitments can drive global emissions reductions by inciting greater green bond finance for the renewable energy projects vital to achieving emissions reduction targets.