Lifecycle operational reliability assessment of water distribution networks based on the probability density evolution method

In this study, a lifecycle operational reliability assessment framework for water distribution networks (WDNs) is proposed on the basis of the probability density evolution method (PDEM). The occurrence models of daily accidents are fitted using the maintenance data provided by a local water administration sector. For a given accident, two types of accidents (e.g., leaks and bursts) are distinguished in different occurrence probabilities and simulated in various ways. The pipe deterioration process in the lifecycle is reflected by incorporating the time-dependent pipe roughness model. Considering various randomness in the model, PDEM, a newly proposed and developed method for a stochastic system, is used to evaluate the lifecycle operational reliability of WDNs. The framework is demonstrated using an actual WDN, and the nodal reliabilities in the lifecycle are obtained. Comparisons of the operational reliabilities of all nodes calculated via the PDEM and Monte Carlo simulations prove that PDEM is an accurate and highly efficient method. •Accident and deterioration models is established for WDNs.•The operational reliability of WDNs is evaluated based on the PDEM.•The accuracy and efficiency of PDEM is illustrated by the comparison between MCS.