Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change

Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change

This paper shows how the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) determines Germany’s potential output, and compares the results with those of the European Commission. The approach of the European Commission is a natural benchmark, as it provides the basis for the deficit and debt rules of the Eur...

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Veröffentlicht in:Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 2020-10, Vol.240 (5), p.565-605
Hauptverfasser: Breuer, Sebastian, Elstner, Steffen
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Demographic change
Demography
E17
E37
O40
output gap
potential output growth
Productivity
Prospects
Structural unemployment
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Elstner, Steffen
description This paper shows how the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) determines Germany’s potential output, and compares the results with those of the European Commission. The approach of the European Commission is a natural benchmark, as it provides the basis for the deficit and debt rules of the European Union. In comparison with the European Commission’s method, the GCEE’s method places greater emphasis on demographic factors in estimating labour input. Additionally, both approaches differ regarding how they estimate the structural unemployment rate and total factor productivity. Finally, this paper discusses the limitations of, and the different options for estimating potential output.
doi_str_mv 10.1515/jbnst-2018-0094
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2366-049X
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source De Gruyter journals
subjects Demographic change
Demography
E17
E37
O40
output gap
potential output growth
Productivity
Prospects
Structural unemployment
title Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change
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