Changing trends of the elasticity of China's carbon emission intensity to industry structure and energy efficiency

In this article, the calculation model of carbon intensity elasticity based on an input-output table is used to measure the elasticity of China's carbon intensity with respect to development of industries, intermediate input coefficients, and energy efficiency during 1990–2015. The industrial differences of the elasticity in 2015 are compared horizontally, and changing trends of the elasticity during 1990–2015 are analyzed in the vertical direction. The main research results imply that: first, in China's 28 subdivided industries, the development of seven industries will increase the national carbon intensity, while the development of 21 industries will decrease the national carbon intensity. The driving forces of some industries show a growing trend year by year; second, lowering industrial intermediate input coefficients by raising the technological level and management level will lead to a significant decline in national carbon intensity; third, the national carbon intensity will reduce by 0.36%, 0.119%, and 0.04% respectively, if the coal using efficiency in electricity and heat industry, coke using efficiency in metal smelting and processing industry, and the diesel using efficiency in transport and post industry increases by 1%; fourth, during 1990–2015, the elasticity of national carbon intensity with respect to the degree of residential coal saving drastically decreased and the elasticity of that with respect to the degree of refined oil saving significantly increased, yet the elasticity of that with respect to the degree of natural gas saving was relatively stable. •We measure changing trends of the elasticity of China’s carbon intensity to industry structure and energy efficiency.•The development of 21 industries will decrease the national carbon intensity in China’s 28 industries.•Lowering industrial intermediate input coefficients will lead to a significant decline in national carbon intensity.•China should continuously improve energy-related technological level and management capabilities in key industries.