Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China

Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China

We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on the survey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a new market-timing test, we show that the urban consumers’ expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the...

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Veröffentlicht in:Emerging markets finance & trade 2018-01, Vol.54 (6), p.1414-1424
1. Verfasser: Ahn, Young Bin
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Consumer Price Index
Consumers
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creator Ahn, Young Bin
description We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on the survey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a new market-timing test, we show that the urban consumers’ expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the urban household CPI (U-CPI) in China. However, after our in-depth analysis using the inflation rate of each category in the U-CPI basket, we find that the consumers’ forecasts are useful in predicting the movement of the residence component in the U-CPI basket since the third quarter of 2009.
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subjects Consumer Price Index
Consumers
title Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China
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