Spatial heterogeneity in population change of the globally threatened European turtle dove in Spain: The role of environmental favourability and land use

Aim To describe the population trend for European turtle doves in Spain. To identify favourable and unfavourable areas for the species and to test whether favourability or land use explain spatial variation in abundance change. Location Mainland Spain. Methods We used generalized linear models with extensive abundance data to describe population change for the European turtle dove across Spain. We used breeding distribution (presence/absence) data at 100 km2 resolution to model environmental favourability in relation to topo‐climatic and land use variables. Finally, we tested whether land use and favourability explained spatial variation in abundance trends. Results The large Spanish turtle dove population declined by 37% between 1996 and 2018. Favourability was highest in the south, east and north–west of Spain and lowest in the north and at higher altitudes. Abundance trends were more negative in areas of lower environmental favourability and in localities dominated by arboreal habitats such as forests, “dehesas” (open agro‐forestry landscapes with scattered Quercus trees), transitional woodland shrubs or sclerophyllous vegetation (a mixture of sclerophyllous shrubs with some scattered trees). Trends were more positive in localities dominated by complex cultivation (small parcels of mixed crop types, including woody permanent crops like olive, or almond trees or vineyards). Main conclusions Our study highlights a substantial recent decline in the numerically important turtle dove breeding population in Spain. Declines in abundance were more strongly associated with arboreal (forest and shrub areas) rather than agricultural habitats, highlighting an urgent need for further research into the ecology of this important quarry species in arboreal breeding habitats in southern Europe.