The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25
Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9, 2012 ), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude ( R m ) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum a a geomagnetic index ( a a min...
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| description | Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9,
2012
), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (
R
m
) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum
a
a
geomagnetic index (
a
a
min
), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in
a
a
(3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between
ln
R
m
and
ln
a
a
min
(
r
=
0.92
) is stronger than that not corrected (
r
=
0.86
). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be
R
m
(
25
)
≃
151.1
±
16.9
, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time,
T
a
(
25
)
=
4.3
±
0.2
±
0.6
, and the peak time of cycle 25,
2024.1
±
0.8
(years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_2414909465</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2414909465</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-e2c67749dbfecfd4f27f28a0628ccc623f6a7484e76189fbe26b5f21423c11a63</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kMFKAzEQhoMoWKsv4GnBc3RmNptsvEnRKhS8VOgtZNOkttbummwPfXujK-jJ0zDM988wH2OXCNcIoG4SQgWaAwGHssaa4xEbYaWIayEXx2wEAIJLAYtTdpbSJrdaajVicv7qi9RubSzcwW39bdFFv1y7fr1bFX2edd6-FW34yxRUnbOTYLfJX_zUMXt5uJ9PHvnsefo0uZtxV6LuuScnlRJ62QTvwlIEUoFqC5Jq55ykMkirRC28kljr0HiSTRUIBZUO0cpyzK6GvV1sP_Y-9WbT7uMunzQkUGjI71WZooFysU0p-mC6uH638WAQzJcfM_gx2Y_59mMwh8ohlDK8W_n4u_qf1CcZPmZx</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2414909465</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25</title><source>Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals</source><creator>Du, Z. L.</creator><creatorcontrib>Du, Z. L.</creatorcontrib><description>Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9,
2012
), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (
R
m
) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum
a
a
geomagnetic index (
a
a
min
), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in
a
a
(3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between
ln
R
m
and
ln
a
a
min
(
r
=
0.92
) is stronger than that not corrected (
r
=
0.86
). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be
R
m
(
25
)
≃
151.1
±
16.9
, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time,
T
a
(
25
)
=
4.3
±
0.2
±
0.6
, and the peak time of cycle 25,
2024.1
±
0.8
(years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0004-640X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1572-946X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Amplitudes ; Astrobiology ; Astronomy ; Astrophysics ; Astrophysics and Astroparticles ; Cosmology ; Error correction ; Geomagnetism ; Observations and Techniques ; Original Article ; Peak values ; Physics ; Physics and Astronomy ; Predictions ; Solar cycle ; Space Exploration and Astronautics ; Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics ; Sunspot cycle ; Sunspot numbers ; Sunspots</subject><ispartof>Astrophysics and space science, 2020-06, Vol.365 (6), Article 104</ispartof><rights>Springer Nature B.V. 2020</rights><rights>Springer Nature B.V. 2020.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-e2c67749dbfecfd4f27f28a0628ccc623f6a7484e76189fbe26b5f21423c11a63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-e2c67749dbfecfd4f27f28a0628ccc623f6a7484e76189fbe26b5f21423c11a63</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-4740-3101</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27915,27916,41479,42548,51310</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Du, Z. L.</creatorcontrib><title>The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25</title><title>Astrophysics and space science</title><addtitle>Astrophys Space Sci</addtitle><description>Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9,
2012
), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (
R
m
) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum
a
a
geomagnetic index (
a
a
min
), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in
a
a
(3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between
ln
R
m
and
ln
a
a
min
(
r
=
0.92
) is stronger than that not corrected (
r
=
0.86
). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be
R
m
(
25
)
≃
151.1
±
16.9
, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time,
T
a
(
25
)
=
4.3
±
0.2
±
0.6
, and the peak time of cycle 25,
2024.1
±
0.8
(years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.</description><subject>Amplitudes</subject><subject>Astrobiology</subject><subject>Astronomy</subject><subject>Astrophysics</subject><subject>Astrophysics and Astroparticles</subject><subject>Cosmology</subject><subject>Error correction</subject><subject>Geomagnetism</subject><subject>Observations and Techniques</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Peak values</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Physics and Astronomy</subject><subject>Predictions</subject><subject>Solar cycle</subject><subject>Space Exploration and Astronautics</subject><subject>Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics</subject><subject>Sunspot cycle</subject><subject>Sunspot numbers</subject><subject>Sunspots</subject><issn>0004-640X</issn><issn>1572-946X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kMFKAzEQhoMoWKsv4GnBc3RmNptsvEnRKhS8VOgtZNOkttbummwPfXujK-jJ0zDM988wH2OXCNcIoG4SQgWaAwGHssaa4xEbYaWIayEXx2wEAIJLAYtTdpbSJrdaajVicv7qi9RubSzcwW39bdFFv1y7fr1bFX2edd6-FW34yxRUnbOTYLfJX_zUMXt5uJ9PHvnsefo0uZtxV6LuuScnlRJ62QTvwlIEUoFqC5Jq55ykMkirRC28kljr0HiSTRUIBZUO0cpyzK6GvV1sP_Y-9WbT7uMunzQkUGjI71WZooFysU0p-mC6uH638WAQzJcfM_gx2Y_59mMwh8ohlDK8W_n4u_qf1CcZPmZx</recordid><startdate>20200601</startdate><enddate>20200601</enddate><creator>Du, Z. L.</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4740-3101</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200601</creationdate><title>The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25</title><author>Du, Z. L.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c319t-e2c67749dbfecfd4f27f28a0628ccc623f6a7484e76189fbe26b5f21423c11a63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Amplitudes</topic><topic>Astrobiology</topic><topic>Astronomy</topic><topic>Astrophysics</topic><topic>Astrophysics and Astroparticles</topic><topic>Cosmology</topic><topic>Error correction</topic><topic>Geomagnetism</topic><topic>Observations and Techniques</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Peak values</topic><topic>Physics</topic><topic>Physics and Astronomy</topic><topic>Predictions</topic><topic>Solar cycle</topic><topic>Space Exploration and Astronautics</topic><topic>Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics</topic><topic>Sunspot cycle</topic><topic>Sunspot numbers</topic><topic>Sunspots</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Du, Z. L.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><jtitle>Astrophysics and space science</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Du, Z. L.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25</atitle><jtitle>Astrophysics and space science</jtitle><stitle>Astrophys Space Sci</stitle><date>2020-06-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>365</volume><issue>6</issue><artnum>104</artnum><issn>0004-640X</issn><eissn>1572-946X</eissn><abstract>Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9,
2012
), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (
R
m
) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum
a
a
geomagnetic index (
a
a
min
), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in
a
a
(3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between
ln
R
m
and
ln
a
a
min
(
r
=
0.92
) is stronger than that not corrected (
r
=
0.86
). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be
R
m
(
25
)
≃
151.1
±
16.9
, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time,
T
a
(
25
)
=
4.3
±
0.2
±
0.6
, and the peak time of cycle 25,
2024.1
±
0.8
(years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4740-3101</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Amplitudes Astrobiology Astronomy Astrophysics Astrophysics and Astroparticles Cosmology Error correction Geomagnetism Observations and Techniques Original Article Peak values Physics Physics and Astronomy Predictions Solar cycle Space Exploration and Astronautics Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics Sunspot cycle Sunspot numbers Sunspots |
| title | The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25 |
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