Practical and Intrinsic Predictability of a Warm‐Sector Torrential Rainfall Event in the South China Monsoon Region

Warm‐sector torrential rainfall (WR) in the South China monsoon region has long been a forecasting challenge because of the limited capability of numerical models in heavy rainfall without strong synoptic forcing. Through convection‐allowing ensemble forecasts, this study explores both the intrinsic...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres 2020-02, Vol.125 (4), p.n/a
Hauptverfasser:	Wu, Naigeng, Zhuang, Xiaoran, Min, Jinzhong, Meng, Zhiyong
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bifurcations Convection Cooling Ensemble forecasting Geophysics Heavy rainfall intrinsic predictability Mathematical models Monsoon rainfall monsoon region Monsoon winds Monsoons Mountain breezes Mountains Numerical models Perturbations practical predictability Rain Rainfall Rainstorms Scaling Sensitivity analysis Surface cooling torrential rainfall warm‐sector Wind
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