Petroleum-Related Foreign Policy ANALYTIC AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF IRANIAN AND SAUDI BEHAVIOR (1948-1974): AN ISSUE-BASED MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL INTERACTION ISSUE DEVELOPMENT CONFLICTUAL AND COOPERATIVE ASPECTS OF INTERACTION BEHAVIOR EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE MODEL DATA AN INSTRUMENTAL APPROACH EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION REFERENCES

This study analyzes foreign policy behavior in the realm of international energy politics. The model we developed states that conflict and cooperation between importers and exporters of oil are related to the development of oil issues by the host countries which are undergoing the process of oil industrialization. Three issue sets are identified and each is related to the foreign policy behavior of the exporters directed toward the western oil importers. The issue sets include (1) development of the emergent oil industries, (2) dis-tribution of the profits therefrom, and (3) the control and ownership of the oil industries. The model depicting aspects of the evolution of oil issues is operationalized utilizing difference equations, and correspondence with event/interaction data is tested for two cases: Iran and Saudi Arabia. Between 53% and 98% of the variance in measured cooperative and conflictual petroleum behavior is explained.