PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION AND SEASONALITY OF CERATITIS CAPITATA WIEDEMANN (DIPTERA, TEPHRITIDAE) IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION OF TURKEY

Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a very destructive pest which feeds on many fruit and vegetable species. To effectively manage this pest, it is necessary to predict its potential geographical distribution and biology. In this study, the population of the pest was monitored in 59 citrus orchards in the Mediterranean region of Turkey (Hatay, Adana, Mersin and Antalya provinces) in 2014 and 2015. A weighted scoring method, which was used to create a risk model, was adopted to predict the distributions of the fly within different seasons. The relationship between the presence of C. capitata and 11 environmental factors, including the four seasons, were studied using PASW software. Thus, the risk areas for the pest based on environmental factors and geographical characteristics were mapped. The results show that the more suitable areas for C. capitata infestations were mainly located in the coastal areas of the region. The pest population differed significantly according to season. The distribution of the pest was associated with night-time land surface temperature (LSTNIGHT). The southern part of Adana (Yuregir district), the Syrian border of Hatay, the Mut district of Mersin and Antalya were determined to have a dense population of the Mediterranean fruit fly compared to other areas. The summer season had the highest-level risk group in the study areas, according to the validation map (83.10%). The climatic differences between seasons and locations, as well as host availability and suitability, have been shown to influence the abundance and distribution of C. capitata populations.