Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolut...

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Veröffentlicht in:Geophysical research letters 2019-12, Vol.46 (24), p.14604-14612
Hauptverfasser: Pilo, Gabriela S., Holbrook, Neil J., Kiss, Andrew E., Hogg, Andrew McC
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creator Pilo, Gabriela S.
Holbrook, Neil J.
Kiss, Andrew E.
Hogg, Andrew McC
description Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean‐sea ice model at coarse (1°), eddy‐permitting (0.25°), and eddy‐rich (0.1°) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad‐scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1° configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse‐resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy‐rich model. Plain Language Summary Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations—with low, medium, and high resolutions—when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less‐frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high‐resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations The higher the model resolutio
doi_str_mv 10.1029/2019GL084928
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Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean‐sea ice model at coarse (1°), eddy‐permitting (0.25°), and eddy‐rich (0.1°) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad‐scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1° configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse‐resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy‐rich model. Plain Language Summary Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations—with low, medium, and high resolutions—when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less‐frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high‐resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics Eddy‐permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy‐rich models are optimal for regional analyses</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084928</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Climate change ; Climatic conditions ; Computer simulation ; Configuration management ; Configurations ; Decay ; Economic impact ; Economic models ; Economics ; Fisheries ; global ocean‐sea ice model ; Heat waves ; Heatwaves ; Induction heating ; Marine fish ; Marine fisheries ; marine heatwave ; Mathematical models ; model resolution ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean currents ; Ocean models ; Oceans ; Resolution ; Sea ice ; Sea ice models ; Sensitivity ; Simulation ; Temperature extremes ; Tourism ; Water circulation</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2019-12, Vol.46 (24), p.14604-14612</ispartof><rights>2019. 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Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean‐sea ice model at coarse (1°), eddy‐permitting (0.25°), and eddy‐rich (0.1°) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad‐scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1° configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse‐resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy‐rich model. Plain Language Summary Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations—with low, medium, and high resolutions—when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less‐frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high‐resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics Eddy‐permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy‐rich models are optimal for regional analyses</description><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climatic conditions</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Configuration management</subject><subject>Configurations</subject><subject>Decay</subject><subject>Economic impact</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>global ocean‐sea ice model</subject><subject>Heat waves</subject><subject>Heatwaves</subject><subject>Induction heating</subject><subject>Marine fish</subject><subject>Marine fisheries</subject><subject>marine heatwave</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>model resolution</subject><subject>Ocean circulation</subject><subject>Ocean currents</subject><subject>Ocean models</subject><subject>Oceans</subject><subject>Resolution</subject><subject>Sea ice</subject><subject>Sea ice models</subject><subject>Sensitivity</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Temperature extremes</subject><subject>Tourism</subject><subject>Water circulation</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp90E1LAzEQBuAgCtbqzR8Q8Orq5GuzuSnFtsKWQtXzkt1OIGXd1GTb0n_vSj14kjnMMDzMwEvILYMHBtw8cmBmVkIhDS_OyIgZKbMCQJ-TEYAZZq7zS3KV0gYABAg2Ik9v2CXf-73vjzQ4urDRd0jnaPuD3SNdYB99k2gf6LJB29FFWGNLV5hCu-t96K7JhbNtwpvfPiYf05f3yTwrl7PXyXOZNZIBZI0dCtaGK6mtznONag21UoVzCoeVwMLVnCsQtWLWaSeYbaRWTBhTc2HFmNyd7m5j-Nph6qtN2MVueFlxIZXKhZZ8UPcn1cSQUkRXbaP_tPFYMah-Mqr-ZjRwfuIH3-LxX1vNVqUyRoP4Brq2Zow</recordid><startdate>20191228</startdate><enddate>20191228</enddate><creator>Pilo, Gabriela S.</creator><creator>Holbrook, Neil J.</creator><creator>Kiss, Andrew E.</creator><creator>Hogg, Andrew McC</creator><general>John Wiley &amp; 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Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean‐sea ice model at coarse (1°), eddy‐permitting (0.25°), and eddy‐rich (0.1°) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad‐scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1° configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse‐resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy‐rich model. Plain Language Summary Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations—with low, medium, and high resolutions—when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less‐frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high‐resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics Eddy‐permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy‐rich models are optimal for regional analyses</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2019GL084928</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Climate change
Climatic conditions
Computer simulation
Configuration management
Configurations
Decay
Economic impact
Economic models
Economics
Fisheries
global ocean‐sea ice model
Heat waves
Heatwaves
Induction heating
Marine fish
Marine fisheries
marine heatwave
Mathematical models
model resolution
Ocean circulation
Ocean currents
Ocean models
Oceans
Resolution
Sea ice
Sea ice models
Sensitivity
Simulation
Temperature extremes
Tourism
Water circulation
title Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution
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