Factors driving Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) in Israel to extinction: time series analysis of population size and juvenile survival in an unexploited population
Wild populations of Arabian gazelles ( Gazella arabica ) were once common on the Arabian Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts of their former range. In Israel only a small population of currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected from illegal hunting a...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Biodiversity and conservation 2020, Vol.29 (1), p.315-332 |
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| creator | Shalmon, Benny Sun, Ping Wronski, Torsten |
| description | Wild populations of Arabian gazelles (
Gazella arabica
) were once common on the Arabian Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts of their former range. In Israel only a small population of currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected from illegal hunting and habitat destruction. In our study we aimed to identify the factors influencing the population growth of
G. arabica
in Israel over the last two decades (1995–2017). We tested the impact of five environmental variables including annual mean maximum temperature, rainfall, the availability of two major food plants, competition with sympatric dorcas gazelle (
G. dorcas
) and predation (mainly by wolves) on two dependent variables relating to population viability (population size, percentage fawn survival) using a retrospective time series analysis. After testing for autocorrelations, two generalized least squares (GLS) models with autocorrelations at 3 and 6 years [GLS-AR(3, 6)] were identified as the best models to explain environmental effects on populations size. Wolf encounter rate had a significant negative effect on
G. arabica
population size, while
G. dorcas
population size had a significant positive effect, suggesting that wolf predation shapes the population size of both gazelle species. For percentage fawn survival, model residuals did not reveal any significant autocorrelation and the best fit GLS-AR(0) model retained only wolf encounter rate and mean annual maximal temperature as significant predictors. This result suggests a strong impact of wolf predation and increasing temperatures on the fawn survival of Arabian gazelles. Changed rainfall patterns, food availability and competition between gazelle species had no impact on fawn survival. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10531-019-01884-8 |
| format | Article |
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Gazella arabica
) were once common on the Arabian Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts of their former range. In Israel only a small population of currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected from illegal hunting and habitat destruction. In our study we aimed to identify the factors influencing the population growth of
G. arabica
in Israel over the last two decades (1995–2017). We tested the impact of five environmental variables including annual mean maximum temperature, rainfall, the availability of two major food plants, competition with sympatric dorcas gazelle (
G. dorcas
) and predation (mainly by wolves) on two dependent variables relating to population viability (population size, percentage fawn survival) using a retrospective time series analysis. After testing for autocorrelations, two generalized least squares (GLS) models with autocorrelations at 3 and 6 years [GLS-AR(3, 6)] were identified as the best models to explain environmental effects on populations size. Wolf encounter rate had a significant negative effect on
G. arabica
population size, while
G. dorcas
population size had a significant positive effect, suggesting that wolf predation shapes the population size of both gazelle species. For percentage fawn survival, model residuals did not reveal any significant autocorrelation and the best fit GLS-AR(0) model retained only wolf encounter rate and mean annual maximal temperature as significant predictors. This result suggests a strong impact of wolf predation and increasing temperatures on the fawn survival of Arabian gazelles. Changed rainfall patterns, food availability and competition between gazelle species had no impact on fawn survival.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0960-3115</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1572-9710</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10531-019-01884-8</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Annual rainfall ; Autocorrelation ; Biodiversity ; Biological competition ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Competition ; Conservation Biology/Ecology ; Dependent variables ; Ecology ; Endangered species ; Environment models ; Environmental degradation ; Environmental effects ; Environmental impact ; extinction ; Extinction (Biology) ; fawns ; Food ; Food availability ; Food plants ; Food processing plants ; Food supply ; Gazella ; Gazella arabica ; Gazella dorcas ; gazelles ; habitat destruction ; Habitat loss ; Hunting ; Interspecific relationships ; Israel ; Juveniles ; Life Sciences ; Original Paper ; Population ; Population growth ; Population number ; population size ; Population viability ; Predation ; Protection and preservation ; Rain ; Rain and rainfall ; Rainfall ; species ; Species extinction ; Survival ; Sympatric populations ; sympatry ; Temperature ; Time series ; time series analysis ; Wolves</subject><ispartof>Biodiversity and conservation, 2020, Vol.29 (1), p.315-332</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2019</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Springer</rights><rights>Biodiversity and Conservation is a copyright of Springer, (2019). All Rights Reserved. © 2019. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c435t-35a1b72b96c177ee204e5e5452cdfd180cbbf592877505ff7aaadbf85f1ce7633</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c435t-35a1b72b96c177ee204e5e5452cdfd180cbbf592877505ff7aaadbf85f1ce7633</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10531-019-01884-8$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10531-019-01884-8$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27903,27904,41467,42536,51298</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Shalmon, Benny</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wronski, Torsten</creatorcontrib><title>Factors driving Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) in Israel to extinction: time series analysis of population size and juvenile survival in an unexploited population</title><title>Biodiversity and conservation</title><addtitle>Biodivers Conserv</addtitle><description>Wild populations of Arabian gazelles (
Gazella arabica
) were once common on the Arabian Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts of their former range. In Israel only a small population of currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected from illegal hunting and habitat destruction. In our study we aimed to identify the factors influencing the population growth of
G. arabica
in Israel over the last two decades (1995–2017). We tested the impact of five environmental variables including annual mean maximum temperature, rainfall, the availability of two major food plants, competition with sympatric dorcas gazelle (
G. dorcas
) and predation (mainly by wolves) on two dependent variables relating to population viability (population size, percentage fawn survival) using a retrospective time series analysis. After testing for autocorrelations, two generalized least squares (GLS) models with autocorrelations at 3 and 6 years [GLS-AR(3, 6)] were identified as the best models to explain environmental effects on populations size. Wolf encounter rate had a significant negative effect on
G. arabica
population size, while
G. dorcas
population size had a significant positive effect, suggesting that wolf predation shapes the population size of both gazelle species. For percentage fawn survival, model residuals did not reveal any significant autocorrelation and the best fit GLS-AR(0) model retained only wolf encounter rate and mean annual maximal temperature as significant predictors. This result suggests a strong impact of wolf predation and increasing temperatures on the fawn survival of Arabian gazelles. Changed rainfall patterns, food availability and competition between gazelle species had no impact on fawn survival.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Annual rainfall</subject><subject>Autocorrelation</subject><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Biological competition</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Competition</subject><subject>Conservation Biology/Ecology</subject><subject>Dependent variables</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Endangered species</subject><subject>Environment models</subject><subject>Environmental degradation</subject><subject>Environmental effects</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>extinction</subject><subject>Extinction (Biology)</subject><subject>fawns</subject><subject>Food</subject><subject>Food availability</subject><subject>Food plants</subject><subject>Food processing plants</subject><subject>Food supply</subject><subject>Gazella</subject><subject>Gazella arabica</subject><subject>Gazella dorcas</subject><subject>gazelles</subject><subject>habitat destruction</subject><subject>Habitat loss</subject><subject>Hunting</subject><subject>Interspecific relationships</subject><subject>Israel</subject><subject>Juveniles</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>Population number</subject><subject>population size</subject><subject>Population viability</subject><subject>Predation</subject><subject>Protection and preservation</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rain and rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>species</subject><subject>Species extinction</subject><subject>Survival</subject><subject>Sympatric populations</subject><subject>sympatry</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>time series 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populations</topic><topic>sympatry</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>time series analysis</topic><topic>Wolves</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Shalmon, Benny</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sun, Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wronski, Torsten</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Sustainability Science Abstracts</collection><collection>Agricultural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Technology Research 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Basic</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>AGRICOLA</collection><collection>AGRICOLA - Academic</collection><jtitle>Biodiversity and conservation</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Shalmon, Benny</au><au>Sun, Ping</au><au>Wronski, Torsten</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Factors driving Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) in Israel to extinction: time series analysis of population size and juvenile survival in an unexploited population</atitle><jtitle>Biodiversity and conservation</jtitle><stitle>Biodivers Conserv</stitle><date>2020</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>29</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>315</spage><epage>332</epage><pages>315-332</pages><issn>0960-3115</issn><eissn>1572-9710</eissn><abstract>Wild populations of Arabian gazelles (
Gazella arabica
) were once common on the Arabian Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts of their former range. In Israel only a small population of currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected from illegal hunting and habitat destruction. In our study we aimed to identify the factors influencing the population growth of
G. arabica
in Israel over the last two decades (1995–2017). We tested the impact of five environmental variables including annual mean maximum temperature, rainfall, the availability of two major food plants, competition with sympatric dorcas gazelle (
G. dorcas
) and predation (mainly by wolves) on two dependent variables relating to population viability (population size, percentage fawn survival) using a retrospective time series analysis. After testing for autocorrelations, two generalized least squares (GLS) models with autocorrelations at 3 and 6 years [GLS-AR(3, 6)] were identified as the best models to explain environmental effects on populations size. Wolf encounter rate had a significant negative effect on
G. arabica
population size, while
G. dorcas
population size had a significant positive effect, suggesting that wolf predation shapes the population size of both gazelle species. For percentage fawn survival, model residuals did not reveal any significant autocorrelation and the best fit GLS-AR(0) model retained only wolf encounter rate and mean annual maximal temperature as significant predictors. This result suggests a strong impact of wolf predation and increasing temperatures on the fawn survival of Arabian gazelles. Changed rainfall patterns, food availability and competition between gazelle species had no impact on fawn survival.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10531-019-01884-8</doi><tpages>18</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0960-3115 |
| ispartof | Biodiversity and conservation, 2020, Vol.29 (1), p.315-332 |
| issn | 0960-3115 1572-9710 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_2333833297 |
| source | Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals |
| subjects | Analysis Annual rainfall Autocorrelation Biodiversity Biological competition Biomedical and Life Sciences Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Competition Conservation Biology/Ecology Dependent variables Ecology Endangered species Environment models Environmental degradation Environmental effects Environmental impact extinction Extinction (Biology) fawns Food Food availability Food plants Food processing plants Food supply Gazella Gazella arabica Gazella dorcas gazelles habitat destruction Habitat loss Hunting Interspecific relationships Israel Juveniles Life Sciences Original Paper Population Population growth Population number population size Population viability Predation Protection and preservation Rain Rain and rainfall Rainfall species Species extinction Survival Sympatric populations sympatry Temperature Time series time series analysis Wolves |
| title | Factors driving Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) in Israel to extinction: time series analysis of population size and juvenile survival in an unexploited population |
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