Time paths of land reform: a theoretical model of reform dynamics

A model is presented that explores the strategic determinants of the dynamic structure of land reform. The model formally addresses the relationship between the dynamics of reform and its role as an escape valve for class tensions. It is shown that maximizing behavior within a well-specified strategic environment generates a time path of critical landholding levels. The evolution of this "revolt threshold" delineates the set of "safe reform plans," those reform plans that incite neither class to revolt. In the basic model, it is demonstrated that a unique safe reform plan exists for every distribution of probabilities over the set of outcomes arising from conflict between reform gainers and losers. It is also shown that the nature of the strategic environment imparts a self-perpetuating property to reform.